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Essay Thursday, September 24, 2015 The Thucydides Trap

By Graham AllisonThursday, September 24, 2015 EssayThe Thucydides TrapWhen Barack Obama meets this week with Xi Jinping during the Chinese president s first state visit to America, one item probably won t be on their agenda: the possibility that the United States and China could find themselves at war in the next decade. In policy circles, this appears as unlikely as it would be unwise. And yet 100 years on, World War I offers a sobering reminder of man s ca-pacity for folly. When we say that war is inconceivable, is this a statement about what is possible in the world or only about what our limited minds can conceive? In 1914, few could imagine slaughter on a scale that demanded a new category: world war.

to the differences as to the similarities among cases we compare. (Indeed, in his Historical Reasoning 101 class, May would take a sheet of paper, draw a line down the middle of the page, label one column “Similar” and the other “Different,” and fill in the sheet with at least a half dozen of each.) Nonetheless, acknowledg -

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