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Lecture Notes for Introductory Probability

Lecture Notes for Introductory ProbabilityJanko GravnerMathematics DepartmentUniversity of CaliforniaDavis, CA 9, 2011 These Notes were started in January 2009 with help from Christopher Ng, a student inMath 135A and 135B classes at UC Davis, who typeset the Notes he took during my text is not a treatise in elementary Probability and has no lofty goals; instead, its aim isto help a student achieve the proficiency in the subject required for a typical exam and basicreal-life applications. Therefore, its emphasis is on examples, which are chosen without muchredundancy. A reader should strive tounderstandevery example given and be able todesignand solvea similar one.

1 INTRODUCTION 2 Example 1.2. In a family with 4 children, what is the probability of a 2:2 boy-girl split? One common wrong answer: 1 5, as the 5 possibilities for the number of boys are not equally likely. Another common guess: close to 1, as this is the most \balanced" possibility.

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