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LECTURE ON THE MARKOV SWITCHING MODEL

LECTURE ONTHE MARKOV SWITCHING MODELCHUNG-MING KUANI nstitute of EconomicsAcademia SinicaThis version: April 19, 2002c Chung-Ming Kuan (all rights reserved).Address for correspondence: Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, : URL: Introduction12 The MARKOV SWITCHING MODEL of conditional A Simple MODEL .. Some Extensions .. MARKOV Trend ..63 MODEL Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation .. Estimation via Gibbs Sampling ..94 Hypothesis Testing for SWITCHING Parameters .. Testing Other Hypotheses ..135 Application: A Study of Taiwan s Business Cycles146 The MARKOV SWITCHING MODEL of conditional Variance187 Application: A Study of Taiwan s Short-Term Interest Rates218 Concluding Remarks26 Appendix I: Estimation of the MODEL ( )27 Appendix II: Computation of Hansen s Statistic ( )29 References30c Chung-Ming Kuan, 200211 IntroductionIt is now common to employ various time series models to analyze the dynamic behav-ior of economic and financial variables.

and Rau, Lin and Li (2001). Given that the Markov switching model of conditional mean is highly successful, it is natural to consider incorporating this switching mecha-nism into conditional variance models. A leading class of conditional variance models is the GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model intro-

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  Generalized, Conditional, Autoregressive, Generalized autoregressive conditional

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