Transcription of Project Risk Analysis Model
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Project Risk Analysis Model
Project Risk Analysis Model User's Guide PRAM. Strategic Analysis and Estimating Office March 2018. Terms Base Cost Estimate The reviewed or validated Project cost estimate used in quantitative risk Analysis . It represents the expected cost if the Project materializes as planned, including PE, RW, and CN costs. It is unbiased and neutral (neither optimistic nor conservative). Base Variability The ordinary quantity and price variations about the estimated base. It is captured as a modest symmetric range about the estimated value, of the form: base value x% . typically from 5% to 15% depending on level of Project development and complexity of the Project . Estimate A quantitative assessment of the likely amount or outcome.
For project risk analysis, attention is focused on events that can affect project objectives such as cost and schedule. The Project Risk Analysis Model (PRAM) uses Monte Carlo simulation to generate cost and schedule probability distributions from user input cost, schedule, risk and uncertainty information.
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