Transcription of Situational Analysis - Duke University
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Situational Analysis by Kevin D. Hoover CHOPE Working Paper No. 2016-17 February 2016 Situational Analysis Kevin D. Hoover Department of Economics Department of Philosophy Duke University 18 February 2016 Mail: Department of Economics Duke University Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097 Tel. (919) 660-1876 Email Abstract Situational Analysis (also known as Situational logic) was popularized by Karl Popper as an appropriate method for the interpretation of history and as a basis for a scientific social science. It seeks an objective positive explanation of behavior through imputing a dominant goal or motive to individuals and then identifying the action that would be objectively appropriate to the situation as the action actually taken. Popper regarded Situational Analysis as a generalization to all of social science of the prototypical reasoning of economics.
Herbert Simon (1959) draws an analogy with pouring molasses into a bowl: if all one wants to know is the equilibrium depth of the molasses, the physical properties, beyond the fact that it is a fluid, do not matter to our accurately predicting the outcome. Simon (1969, pp. 51-54) similarly
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