Transcription of Standards and Practices for Forecasting
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Standards and Practices for Forecasting
Principles of Forecasting : A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. Scott Armstrong (ed.): Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001 Standards and Practices for Forecasting J. Scott Armstrong The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania ABSTRACT One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about Forecasting . They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence. A checklist of principles is provided to assist in auditing the Forecasting process. An audit can help one to find ways to improve the Forecasting process and to avoid legal liability for poor Forecasting . When managers receive forecasts, they often cannot judge their quality.
STANDARDS AND PRACTICES FOR FORECASTING 3 Source of evidence: Fildes and Hastings (1994), Griffith and Wellman (1979), Harvey (2001), Larwood and Whittaker (1977), and Sanders and Ritzman (2001). 1.4 Consider whether the …
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