Transcription of 04 AEO2021 Electricity
1 Electricity Electricity generation and share from selected fuels and renewable sources Electricity generation from selected fuels renewable Electricity generation, including end use AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 Reference case billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours 2020 2020. 6,000 2,500. history projections history projections 5,000. 2,000. 36% natural gas solar 4,000 47% wind renewables 1,500. 40% geothermal nuclear 3,000 coal hydroelectric 16%. 1,000 other 21% 42% 46%. 2,000 34%. 19% 500 41%. 1,000 11% 2% 2%. 19% 34% 13%. 11% 7%. 0 0 4%. 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) Electricity demand Electricity use growth rate, Electricity use by end-use sector three-year rolling average AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 economic growth cases billion kilowatthours percentage growth 2,000.
2 2020. 5% onsite history projections 1,600 generation 4%. High 1,200 purchased 3%. Economic Electricity 2% Growth 800. Reference 1% Low 400. Economic 0% Growth 0. 1990. 2020. 2050. 1990. 2020. 2050. 1990. 2020. 2050. 1990. 2020. 2050. -1%. -2%. 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 residential industrial commercial transportation Note: Onsite generation is Electricity produced onsite for own use. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) Electricity generation levels from selected fuels and renewable sources Electricity generation, AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases Reference case Low Oil and Gas Supply case High Oil and Gas Supply case billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours 2020 2020 2020. 3,000 3,000 3,000. history projections projections projections 2,500 2,500 2,500. renewables 2,000 2,000 2,000. 1,500 1,500 1,500.
3 Natural gas 1,000 1,000 1,000. coal 500 nuclear 500 500. 0 0 0. 1990 2010 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050. Note: Renewables category includes Electricity generation from wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, and other biomass sources. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) Electricity generation levels from selected fuels and renewable sources Electricity generation, AEO2021 renewables cost cases Reference case Low Renewables cost case High Renewables cost case billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours 2020 2020 2020. 3,000 history projections 3,000 3,000. projections projections 2,500 2,500 2,500. renewables 2,000 2,000 2,000. 1,500 1,500 1,500. natural gas 1,000 1,000 1,000. coal 500 nuclear 500 500. 0 0 0. 1990 2010 2030 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050.
4 Note: Renewables category includes Electricity generation from wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, and other biomass sources. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) retiring and new generating capacity Annual Electricity generating capacity additions and retirements AEO2021 Reference case gigawatts 2020. 60 history projections 50. additions 40. 30 solar 20 wind 10 other 0 oil and natural gas nuclear -10. coal -20. -30. retirements -40. -50. -60. 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050. Source: Form EIA-860M, Monthly Update to the Annual Electric Generator Report, July 2020. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) cumulative retiring and new generating capacity Cumulative Electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (2021 2050). AEO2021 selected cases gigawatts 1,400 additions 1,200.
5 1,000 solar 657 wind 800 563 385. 435 206 oil and 600 105 natural gas 237 121. 400 114 200 nuclear 200 375 2 253 6 466 2 297 446 2 other coal 0 94 97. 26 23 21. Reference case Low Oil and High Oil and Gas Low Renewables High Renewables Gas Supply case Supply case cost case cost case 0 -29 -14 -59 -58 -26. -111 -91 -107. -128 -120 retirements -200 -64. -49 -52 -58 -48. -400. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) Electricity prices by components and long-term average Electricity prices Components of Electricity Prices average Electricity price AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 selected cases 2020 cents per kilowatthour 2020 cents per kilowatthour 12 12 2020. history projections 10. 11 Low Oil and 8 distribution Gas Supply High Renewables cost 6 transmission 10. Reference generation Low Renewables 4. cost 9. High Oil and Gas 2 Supply 0 8.
6 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) Hybrid versus stand-alone solar photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage systems solar PV generating capacity, all sectors storage energy capacity, power sector AEO2021 Reference case AEO2021 Reference case gigawatts billion kilowatthours 600 hybrid solar PV, power sector hybrid storage stand-alone solar PV, end use stand-alone storage 500 stand-alone solar PV, power sector 400. 300. 200. 100. 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) Northeast Renewable capacity by source and region West PJM. Mid-Continent CAISO. Total renewables capacity in all sectors, 2019 and 2050 Southeast AEO2021 selected side cases ERCOT. gigawatts Northeast PJM Southeast Mid-Continent ERCOT CAISO West 400.
7 Solar photovoltaic, power sector stand-alone energy storage 350 solar photovoltaic, end use other 300 onshore wind hydro offshore wind 250. 200. 150. 100. 50. 0. History History History History History History HC. HOGS. HC. HOGS. HC. HOGS. HC. HOGS. HOGS. History HC. HC. HOGS. HC. HOGS. Reference LOGS. LC. Reference LOGS. LC. Reference LOGS. LC. Reference LOGS. LC. Reference LOGS. LC. Reference LOGS. LC. Reference LOGS. LC. HC: High Renewable cost ; LC: Low Renewable cost ; HOGS: High Oil & Gas Supply; LOGS: Low Oil & Gas Supply; other: geothermal, biomass, municipal waste Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) Economic cost competitiveness of generating technologies levelized avoided cost of Electricity (LACE) and levelized cost of Electricity (LCOE) by technology, 2026 online year, AEO2021 Reference case 2020 dollars per megawatthour CCGT wind PV.
8 $100 $100 regions with built $100. capacity levelized avoided cost of Electricity $50 $50 $50. regions with no built capacity $0 $0 $0. $0 $50 $100 $0 $50 $100 $0 $50 $100. coal nuclear Economically attractive builds are shown above $100 $100. the diagonal breakeven line for each technology. $50 $50. The solid, colored circles on the figure indicate that projects tend to be built in regions where $0 $0 revenue (LACE) exceeds costs (LCOE). $0 $50 $100 $0 $50 $100. levelized cost of Electricity Note: CCGT = natural gas combined cycle, PV = solar photovoltaic Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) renewable portfolio standards Total qualifying renewables generation required for combined state renewable portfolio standards and projected total generation from compliant technologies AEO2021 Reference case billion kilowatthours 2,500.
9 Additional projected generation required compliant generation 2,000. 1,500. 1,000. 500. 0. 2020 2030 2040 2050. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) nuclear capacity and annual capacity changes nuclear Electricity generating capacity Year-over-year nuclear capacity changes AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases AEO2021 Reference case gigawatts gigawatts 2020 2020. 120 history projections 2 history projections additions 0. 100. Low Oil and -2 retirements 80 Gas Supply -4. 60 Reference assumed uprates -6 new reactors 40 actual or announced retirements High Oil and -8 projected retirements Gas Supply 20 -10. 0 -12. 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) coal-fired generation, capacity, and capacity factors electric generating total Electricity capacity factor for coal-fired generation capacity generation AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases percentage gigawatts billion kilowatthours 2020 2020.
10 350 4,000 100%. history projections history projections 300 Low Oil and Gas Supply 80%. coal-fired Reference 3,000. 250. capacity High Oil and Gas Supply 200 60%. 2,000. 150 40%. Low Oil and Gas Supply 100 coal-fired Reference generation 1,000. 20% High Oil and Gas Supply 50. 0 0 0%. 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050. Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 ( AEO2021 ) coal-fired generating capacity relative to natural gas prices electric generating capacity Average delivered natural gas prices to the electric AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases power sector gigawatts 2020 dollars per million British thermal units 2020. 350. history projections $28. 300 Low Oil and Gas supply coal-fired capacity Reference $24. 250 High Oil and Gas supply $20. 200. $16. 150 natural gas prices $12. 100 $8. 50 $4. 0 $0. 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050.
