현안과 과제 미국 기준금리 인상 의미와 시사점 170615

1 - 17-15 - ExecutiveSummary i1. 12. 23. 10.

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5 22. 1) , , 2/4 , - , 2017 2 4 2 .ISM 2017 5 , 50p - 2017 5 4 , 1) 2017 5 2007 12 < ISM > < >( ,%)(p)(%)( ) :Bloomberg. ) Congressional Budget Office Potential GDP and Underlying Inputs 2017 1/4 2/4.

6 3- 2% 6 ,2/4 2017 1 , 4 , , 3 -2017 1/4 2/4 2017 1/4 , , 2/4 2% < > < >( ,%)(%)( ) :Bloomberg. :Bloomberg. :67 . 42) , -2017 1 2016 4 , 2017 1 , ( ) , - 2016 , 2017 4 (100) , < > < , CSI >.

7 : , . 5 , - 2016 , 2017 2% 5 ( ) - 2015 10% 2017 1 1360 2)< > < > : . : .2) (2017), , , 17-20.

8 63) , -1 :1999 5 6 6 29 2 (55 ) , 6 30 (225 ) 2000 2 , 4 11% , 20% -2 :2005 6 30 8 8 (40 ) , 8 9 2 (63 ) 2005 10 , 2 5% , 10% < 1 > < 2 >(%)(%) :Bloomberg. :Bloomberg. 7 ( ) -(1 ).

9 1999 5 810p 696p . 1999 3~4 , 1999 5~6 , 1999 7~8 -(2 ) .2005 6 2005 7 S&P 6 .2005 8 < 1 > < 2 > :Bloomberg, . 8 ( ) -(1 )1999 1999 4 1 732 1999 5 271 1999 1999 7 -(2 )2005 , , 2005 1 5,916 6 (1,266 )

10 2005 8 , < 1 > < 2 > : . 9 ( ) -(1 ) , .1999 5 / 1,190 1,208 1,150 . 1999 7 / 1,208 . 1999 3~4 / , 1999 5~6 , 1999 7~8 -(2 ).