Aging Population: Global Perspectives - BOT

1 Aging population : Global Perspectives Dhanaporn Chittinandana Nakanang Kulnartsiri Jaree Pinthong Paphatsorn Sawaengsuksant Bank of Thailand 2017. 1| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Content 1. Global Aging trend and Thailand's position 2. Cases: Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand 3. Policy responses 2| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses 2| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Global Aging trend and Thailand's position 1. 3| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Rising challenges from population Aging on the economy and our welfare being Lower Fiscal economic sustainability growth concern Employability Income Security Quality of Life 4| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Global society is Aging .

2 Asia's ratio of the old is ranked fifth among 6 regions. population are Aging globally. By 2040, over 14% of Global population are 65 years old or above, marking the beginning of Global aged society. Regional differentials range from the oldest Europe and North America to the youngest Africa. Europe North 65+. America 2 65+. 1 26% 5 Asia 22% 65+. 15%. Africa 6 65+. Latin 5%. America 65+. 4 16% Oceania 65+. 3 17%. 5| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Common causes for Global population Aging Declining fertility reflects a combination of factors, including better education, urbanization, higher wages, access to contraception and government policies.

3 The rapid increase in life expectancy is due to improved material well-being, advancement in medicine and better access to health services. A considerable number of baby boomers (19 percent of world population1) are Aging concurrently, fastening the pace of Global Aging process. Low Fertility Longevity Baby Boomer Source: 1) Data obtained from UN population Prospect (2015), excluding Africa region 6| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses While countries have taken 18-115 years to transition from Aging to aged society, Thailand is taking only 20 years, the fastest and earliest developing country to become aged society.

4 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050. By 2035, Thailand will be the first developing France 1864 1979. country enter hyper-aged society. All countries Sweden 1887 1972. United Kingdom 1929 1975. at this Aging process already escaped the United States 1942 2014 middle income threshold, but Thailand is still Canada 1945 2010 trapped below that. Japan 1970 1994. South Korea 1999 2017 Hyper-aged countries in 2035. Singapore 1999 2019 High income Thailand 2002 2022 High-Income China 2002 2025. Vietnam 2016 2034. India 2023 2051. Indonesia 2025 2050.

5 (thousand $ GNI/capita). 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050. Year Middle-Income Notes: The year to the left of the bar designates the year in which the percentages of the population aged 65+ reached 7% ( Aging society); the number to the right of the bar designates the year when the Aging rate attained 14% (aged society). Sources: World Bank 2016 based on data from the UN (2015) and IPSS (2016) 7| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Asia is Aging fastest in the world. Japan's hyper-aged society among the leader in region's Aging process, followed by aged South Korea and Aging Singapore.

6 Thailand's Aging process is just behind these 3 front runners, and slightly ahead of Vietnam. % of population aged 65+ to total population 2040 34% 31% 30% 26% 17%. 2020 29% 16% 15% 13% 8%. Aging Hyper-aged (20%) Aged (14%) Aging (7%). process at present Japan S. Korea Singapore Thailand Vietnam Source: UN population Prospect, 2015 8| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses 2 Cases of Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand 9| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Common characteristics of Aging society are reflected by low total fertility rate and high life expectancy at birth.

7 Thailand's figures are on par with developed countries, despite its significantly low income. Many Asian countries have among the lowest total fertility rate in the world, at between and children per woman, well below those seen in other developed countries. Life expectancy is now over 80 years old in Japan, South Korea and Singapore. Developed World Japan S. Korea Singapore Thailand Regions Total fertility rate population growth Life expectancy at birth 68 77 83 80 81 73. GNI/Capita (USD)1 10,551 41,932 38,840 27,450 52,090 5,720.

8 Note: Developed regions include EU, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand, and Japan Source: 1) Data obtained from Worldbank (2015), Atlas method (current US$), other data obtained from the United Nation (2015). 10| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Japan : Hyper - Aged Society World's first country that have entered hyper-aged society 80% born after the end of WWII. Largest share of 65+ population and longest life expectancy in the world Remarkably high private saving rate age 75+ and 13%. 90% of centenarians are women 2020 2040.

9 Ratio of Old Age population 45% want to work until age 65. Dependency Ratio 23% want to work as long as they are in good health Data as of 2015. 11| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses South Korea : Aged Society Ratio of Old Age population Dependency Ratio 2020 2040. 2020. 2040. The highest poverty rate (%) among those aged 65+ Fastest transition pace in 18 years, with a similar demographic state to Thailand Many prospects to be improved: Despite high education attainment of elderly people, about a 54% half of aged workers are temporarily employed or under the temporary 30% poverty line.

10 Workers earn below Koreans are still looking for a new job after age 40, while minimum retiring from full-time corporate jobs in their 50s. wage Long work hours and a lack of work-life balance discourage young couples from making a family 12| Aging population : Global Trend and Policy Responses Singapore : Aging Society Singaporeans are more likely to live alone or live Living Arrangement of Singapore Seniors (65+). only with their spouse at old age. Thousand Well-prepared and inclusive policy fostering 1000. comprehensive coordination among relevant 800 Roughly 50%.