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Approved for Public Release - afcea.org

Senior Scientific Technical Manager (SSTM) for OCO & Acting Deputy DirectorIntelligence & Information Warfare DirectorateMarch, 2018 Giorgio Bertoli, CISSPA pproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release2 WWWHTMLF irst SMSC ommodore 64 Windows BrowserGPRSF irst HDTV BroadcastLCD1B usersProdigy OnlineSMTPIPV4 SpaceOfficially Exhausted3G (UMTS / CDMA2000)WATSON wins Jeopardy2B E-mailusers1stautonomous vehicle license BOSS wins DARPA grand challenge4G (LTE) GigaflopsSR2201600 GigaflopsEarth TeraflopsIBM Blue Jean280 teraflopsCRAY k modemChina TaihuLight93 petaflopsAlphaGodefeats Lee Sedol1B usersSpaceX lands rocket DDR4 Facebook is officially the world s most populous entity8k TV broadcastChina Tianhe-2 34 petaflopsIBM Roadrunner1 petaflopApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public ReleaseDSL32050 Estimates World population of 70% in unban centers 600B-700B connected devices Averages to ~70 connected devices per personApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public a 4% increase every 12-18 monthsApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public = = +091E+101E+111E+121E+131E+141E+151E+161E +171E+181E+191E+201E+211E+

Approved for Public Release 2.) SW complexity will continue to increase, not just in lines of code, but also in interoperability with other SW components and system. 3.) Security will ALWAYS be a concern, with new attack vectors that are hard to enumerate and fully comprehend (e.g. larger

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Transcription of Approved for Public Release - afcea.org

1 Senior Scientific Technical Manager (SSTM) for OCO & Acting Deputy DirectorIntelligence & Information Warfare DirectorateMarch, 2018 Giorgio Bertoli, CISSPA pproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release2 WWWHTMLF irst SMSC ommodore 64 Windows BrowserGPRSF irst HDTV BroadcastLCD1B usersProdigy OnlineSMTPIPV4 SpaceOfficially Exhausted3G (UMTS / CDMA2000)WATSON wins Jeopardy2B E-mailusers1stautonomous vehicle license BOSS wins DARPA grand challenge4G (LTE) GigaflopsSR2201600 GigaflopsEarth TeraflopsIBM Blue Jean280 teraflopsCRAY k modemChina TaihuLight93 petaflopsAlphaGodefeats Lee Sedol1B usersSpaceX lands rocket DDR4 Facebook is officially the world s most populous entity8k TV broadcastChina Tianhe-2 34 petaflopsIBM Roadrunner1 petaflopApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public ReleaseDSL32050 Estimates World population of 70% in unban centers 600B-700B connected devices Averages to ~70 connected devices per personApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public a 4% increase every 12-18 monthsApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public = = +091E+101E+111E+121E+131E+141E+151E+161E +171E+181E+191E+201E+211E+22197519881995 2000200520102015202020252030203520402045 FLOPSYearGPP FLOPS

2 ProjectionFLOPSE xponentialProjectionPowerProjectionData compiledfrom and References from and power of the Human BrainEstimated Full Simulation of Human BrainPetaflopExaflopTeraflopZettaflopApp roved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public + + + + + + + + + + + + +102011201220132014201520162017201820192 0202021202220232024202520262027202820292 0302031203220332034203520362037203820392 0402041204220432044204520462047204820492 050world populationsmartphone penetration100% Penetration World population YearGlobal Smartphone Penetration ProjectionsApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release7 COMPLEXITY1980s1990s2000s200520102020202 5+Simple (Single Function)High(General Purpose CPU / OS)Medium(Multiple-Tasks)Technology EvolutionShared FunctionalityFunctional ReplacementNo Internet ConnectivityPartial Internet ConnectivityContinually ConnectedSW applications defines the function of commodity HWApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release8 Cumulative number of Apps downloaded from Apple s App Store (2008 2016)Data from for Public ReleaseApproved for Public ReleaseNumber of apps in leading app stores as of March 20179 Cyber Domain advancements are most often predicated on new applicationsas opposed to new novel underlying technologies.

3 EG: TWITTERB ased on concepts & technology that had been available for over two decade prior to its : Crowdsourcing Knowledge Services SW Dev. SA Reputation CapitalThings We CrowdsourceCreated March, 2006, is a microblog allowing for 144 character messages tweets to followers or topic. 20092012 Approved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release10 global populationcommercial driverless automobileMachine augmented human brain performance1stquantum Supercomputer computerFirst ExascaleHPC1st3D printed heart transplant5G overtakes 4G in Global deployment prevalenceAI (Machine Cognition) ?Augmented reality enabled windshieldNeural Machine InterfaceReRAMA pproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public ReleaseBio -implanted authenticationThe Singularity?Digital currency accepted by many retailers11 Google home assistantAmazon EchoApple HomePodHP Cortana InvokeG-SpeakApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release12 Smart DiaperApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release13 Approved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release14 Approved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release15 Approved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release16 Legal (Privacy, Liability, Law Enforcement) Moral (Human augmentation, AI) Political (Fragmentation, Regulatory) Economic (Loss of low skill labor) Social (Seclusion, Fragmentation) Civil (Privacy, Loss of revenue) Environmental (energy demands and waste)Continued technological advancement will revolutionize how we live, work and interact with machines.

4 Approved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public ReleaseIt will also revolutionize how we fightAND It must change how we equip!17 Approved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release2.) SW complexity will continue to increase, not just in lines of code, but also in interoperability with other SW components and system. 3.) Securitywill ALWAYS be a concern, with new attack vectors that are hard to enumerate and fully comprehend ( larger attack surface; SW zombies).1.) HWwill continue to commoditize, with SW being the fundamental differentiator in service and for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release19 Approved for Public ReleaseQUESTIONS?20 Approved for Public ReleaseQUESTIONS? Approved for Public Release21701 Approved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release22 COMMSEW/CyberSIGINTUIRX/TXAMP Speed Data BusCommon SDR & Platform Interoperability StandardsPower & RF DistributionPlatform Data DistributionUI StationAmp BankAntennasApproved for Public ReleaseApproved for Public Release In the current Acquisition model, the PM owns the entire program from cradle to grave.

5 This is no longer the most efficient mechanism for SW dominant systems. HWhas commoditized and many of these systems have most of the same components. SW dictating desired functionality. Procurement/Development based on a modular open architecture baseline would allow for greater interoperability, expedited capability upgrades, and reduced lifecycle costs.


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