CHAPTER 4 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY STUDY

1 4-1 CHAPTER 4 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY STUDY Power demand Projection Male Island In the aftermath of the Tsunami disaster caused by Sumatra earthquake of December 2004, there has been steady migration of people from outer islands to Male Island and the demand for electricity here has increased rapidly. The latest power demand projection conducted by STELCO was the Power Extension STUDY that was conducted by German consultant OLP in 2004, and this made a forecast of peak demand on Male and Hulhumale Islands up to 2020. For Male Island, this STUDY estimated two scenarios: a high growth case and a low growth case; however, even in the low growth case, peak load is expected to exceed the firm capacity of generator facilities (the capacity obtained after deducting the largest generator capacity from the 85% of total rated capacity) in 2013, indicating an urgent need to reinforce generating facilities.

2 Accordingly, STELCO commenced the Fourth Power System Development Project under support from DANIDA (Denmark) in 2009. This entails the procurement and installation of two DEGs (8 MW) with construction of foundations for three units and is scheduled for completion in 2010. It is planned to procure and install the third unit under this project in 2011. Male' - Firm Capacity versus Peak Load [MW] - 2003 to [MW]Largest Gen-set OutDG 10 / MWDG 8 +9 / MWDG 6+7 / MWDG 1 - 5 / MWScenario 2 Projection@ - 1 Projection - 1 Extrapolation@ Load ActualOptimisticConservative Source : STELCO Figure Power demand Projection for Male Island (STELCO) 4-2 The STUDY Team conducted regression analysis based on the minimum square method utilizing GDP values (by the Ministry of Finance) from 1997 to 2007 and GDP projections from 2008 to 2011 as the first parameter and population statistics from 2000 to 2007 as the second parameter, and compared the findings with the above projection by STELCO.

3 The prediction model was constructed on the econometric simulation software Simple EE, which is used for projecting power demand in East Asia. Generally speaking, since econometric models are constructed as an aggregate of numerous estimation expressions and definitional expressions, it is necessary to verify the model validity. In the STUDY , model validity was verified through using the following indicators: Coefficient of determination (R2) (expressing overall model certainty): or more Value t (estimated coefficient assessing reference accuracy): Absolute value of 2 or more As a result of conducting regression analysis on peak load, R2 = and t = were obtained and the validity of the constructed model was verified. In the future, these projection findings will be used to project peak load on each distribution line feeder and estimate the maximum PV capacity that can be connected to each feeder.

4 3137033640361103838040600427604484046790 4861050270517405300034330379524144144949 4842451807550405806060807632236525466853 33554 35829 38258 40523 42789 45055 47321 49587 51852 54118 56384 58650 0100002000030000400005000060000700008000 0200920102011201220132014201520162017201 820192020 Peak Load kW YearSTELCO projection (low growth case)STELCO projection (high growth case) STUDY Team projection (GDP regression analysis) Source: Prepared by the STUDY Team Figure Power demand Projection for Male Island (Comparison with the STUDY Team s Projection) Hulhumale Island As in the case of Male Island, the latest demand projection (Figure ) is the one that was implemented in 2004, however, because values from 2004 onwards are not reflected in this forecast , the STUDY Team conducted a separate demand projection involving analysis of peak power from 2004 to 2008.

5 According to the Hulhumale Development Corporation (HDC), although plans aiming for the relocation of 60,000 residents by 2020 are being sustained by the new government, future trends regarding the large-scale development of residential areas and industrial and business districts are 4-3 unclear. Accordingly, demand projection was implemented for two cases, 1) the population growth rate ( ) required to achieve the target population proposed under the relocation program, and 2) the case assuming the peak load growth rate ( ) between 1987~2008 on Male Island. As is shown in Figure , power demand in the high growth case is estimated to be approximately 16 MW in 2020, which is close to the findings of the low growth case by STELCO. Therefore, detailed analysis in the following sections will be carried out based on the high growth case estimated by the STUDY Team.

6 Hulhumale - Peak Load Projections [MW] - 2005 to [MW]Scenario 1 Population@ 3050 - kW/capScenario 2 Population@ 1500 / 3050 cap/a - kW/capScenario 3 Population@ 1500 / 3050 - kW/capPeak Load ActualOptimisticConservative Source : STELCO Figure Estimated Power demand on Hulhumale Island (STELCO) 1,479 1,838 2,283 2,838 3,526 4,382 5,445 6,766 8,408 10,448 12,983 16,133 1,319 1,461 1,620 1,795 1,989 2,204 2,443 2,707 3,000 3,325 3,684 4,083 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Peak Load kW YearHigh growth caseLow growth case Source : Prepared by the STUDY Team Figure Estimated Power demand on Hulhumale Island ( STUDY Team) 4-4 Collection and Analysis of Solar Irradiation Data, etc.

7 During the first field survey, the STUDY Team visited the Department of Meteorology and calculated monthly solar irradiation utilizing data measured in a joint effort between the former Ministry of Communication Science & Technology (MCST) and UNDP between August 1, 2003 and July 31, 2004. Solar irradiation observations are not currently implemented due to breakdown of the data logger, however, the STUDY Team found that the pyranometer is operating independently. In order to confirm the reliability of the data, in the second field survey the STUDY Team took a calibrated pyranometer (Table ), installed it in the same place and compared the resulting data with data from the existing instrument. As is shown in Figure and Figure , since both meters give almost the same data, reliability of the local pyranometer was confirmed and it was decided to adopt the measurements from August 1, 2003 to July 31, 2004 as the basic data.

8 Source : Prepared by the STUDY Team Figure Hulhumale Island Solar Irradiation Data Analysis Findings Pyranometer (data logger not working) installed in the Meteorological Agency on Hulhumale Island MonthDaily Avg. GrobalIrradiation[kWh/m2/day] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 AVEM onthIrradiation kWh/m2/day 4-5 Table Specifications of the Pyranometer and Data Logger Used for Comparison Instrument Specifications Manufacturer Prede Co., Ltd. Model PCM-01(L) Wavelength scope 305 2800nm Sensitivity 7mV/kW m-2 Irradiation sensor Accuracy 3% Manufacturer Hioki Corporation Model UIZ3635-50 V Input Voltage 1ch Measured scope 50mV resolution: logger Certainty 5 dgt.

9 Source : Prepared by the STUDY Team Figure Pyranometer Accuracy Confirmation Findings (May 19, clear skies) Source : Prepared by the STUDY Team Figure Pyranometer Accuracy Confirmation Findings (May 24, rain) -: Existing pyranometer -: Comparative pyranometer -: Existing pyranometer -: Comparative pyranometer 4-6 This global solar irradiation data were divided into direct solar irradiation and scattered solar irradiation using the solar irradiation estimation method devised by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) based on survey by the Japan Weather Association. The findings of these calculations shall be used as design parameters for projecting power generation in the grid-connected PV system. Source : Prepared by the STUDY Team Figure Horizontal Plane Solar Irradiation Data Applied in the STUDY Examination and Measurement concerning Solar Irradiation Obstruction The STUDY Team and counterparts surveyed each potential site and confirmed the areas where sunlight is impeded by surrounding buildings and obstructions, etc.

10 Upon selecting impacted areas on each site, examination of solar irradiation obstruction was conducted with the counterparts using a solar map at the winter solstice on Male Island and Hulhumale Island and a transit compass. MonthDaily Avg. GrobalIrradiation[kWh/m2/day] kWh/m2/day 4-7 Table Measurement Results concerning Solar Irradiation Obstruction No Site Solar irradiation obstruction (measured site) Measurement point and impacted time Male Island 1 STELCO Building None 2 STELCO Power House None 3 Dharubaaruge Ye s (West and east buildings) West building Points A, B, C, D (17:00-18: 00) East building Points A, B (16:00-18:00), Point C (6:00-9: 00,17:00-18:00), Point D (6:00-7:00) 4 Velaanaage (Govt. Office) Unknown (works in progress) 5 Giyaasudheen School Ye s (Gymnasium) Point A (6:00-8:10,13: 50-15:10), Point B (6:00-8:10), Point C (6:00-7:40) Point D (6:00-7:30), Point E (6:00-7:10) 6 Kalaafaanu School Ye s (South and north school buildings and gymnasium) South school building: Points A, B (17: 10-18: 00), Point C (16:30-18:00), Point D (17:00-18:00)North building: Points A, B (16:50-18:00), Point C (16:30-18:00), Point D (15:30-18:00)Gymnasium Point A (16:30-18:00), Point B (15:40-18:00), Point C (14:50-18:00), Point D (15:30-18.)