Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2021 ...

1 NREL is a national laboratory of the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-79236 June 2021 cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2021 Update Wesley Cole, A. Will Frazier, and Chad Augustine National Renewable Energy Laboratory NREL is a national laboratory of the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden, CO 80401 303-275-3000 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-79236 June 2021 cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2021 Update Wesley Cole, A.

2 Will Frazier, and Chad Augustine National Renewable Energy Laboratory Suggested Citation Cole, Wesley, A. Will Frazier, and Chad Augustine. 2021. cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2021 Update. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-79236. NOTICE This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. This report was jointly funded by the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Programs, Solar Energy Technologies Office, Water Power Technology Office, and Wind Energy Technology Office, under contract number DE-AC36-08GO28308.

3 The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the Government. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via Cover Photos by Dennis Schroeder: (clockwise, left to right) NREL 51934, NREL 45897, NREL 42160, NREL 45891, NREL 48097, NREL 46526. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. iii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at Acknowledgments We are grateful to ReEDS modeling team for their input on this work. We also thank David Feldman (NREL), Ryan Hledik (Brattle), Cara Marcy (EPA), Vignesh Ramasamy (NREL), and Daniel Steinberg (NREL) for providing input and feedback on this report.

4 This report was jointly funded by the EERE Office of Strategic Programs, Solar Energy Technologies Office, Water Power Technology Office, and Wind Energy Technology Office, under contract number DE-AC36-08GO28308. All errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors. iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at Executive Summary In this work we describe the development of cost and performance Projections for Utility-Scale lithium-ion Battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The Projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that consider Utility-Scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for Battery storage over time.

5 Figure ES-1 shows the suite of projected costs reductions (on a normalized basis) collected from the literature (shown in gray) as well as the low, mid, and high cost Projections developed in this work (shown in black). Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour Battery system based on those Projections , with storage costs of $143/kWh, $198/kWh, and $248/kWh in 2030 and $87/kWh, $149/kWh, and $248/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed. Figure ES-1. Battery cost Projections for 4-hour lithium-ion systems, with values relative to 2019. The high, mid, and low cost Projections developed in this work are shown as the bolded lines.

6 Figure ES-2. Battery cost Projections for 4-hour lithium ion systems. Battery cost Projections (relative to 2020)HighMidLowPublished Values2018-21only05010015020025030035040 020202025203020352040204520504-hour Battery Capital cost (2020$/kWh)HighMidLowv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at Table of Contents 1 Background .. 1 2 Methods .. 1 3 Results and Discussion .. 4 4 Summary .. 11 References .. 12 Appendix .. 13 List of Figures Figure ES-1. Battery cost Projections for 4-hour lithium-ion systems, with values relative to 2019.. iv Figure ES-2. Battery cost Projections for 4-hour lithium ion systems.. iv Figure 1. Battery cost Projections for 4-hour lithium-ion systems, with values relative to 2019.. 5 Figure 2. Battery cost Projections for 4-hour lithium ion systems.

7 6 Figure 3. Battery cost Projections developed in this work (bolded lines) relative to published cost Projections .. 7 Figure 4. Current Battery storage costs from studies published in 2019 or later.. 8 Figure 5. cost Projections for energy (left) and power (right) components of lithium-ion systems.. 9 Figure 6. cost Projections for 2-, 4-, and 6-hour duration batteries using the mid cost projection.. 9 Figure 8. Comparison of cost Projections developed in this report (solid lines) against the values from the 2020 cost projection report (Cole and Frazier 2020) (dashed lines).. 15 Figure 9. Comparison of cost Projections developed in this report (solid lines) the values from the 2020 cost projection report (Cole and Frazier 2020) (dashed lines), with all values normalized to the Mid cost projection in the year 2020.

8 15 List of Tables Table 1. List of publications used in this study to determine Battery cost and performance Projections .. 1 Table 2. Values from Figure 1 and Figure 2, which show the normalized and absolute storage costs over time. Storage costs are overnight capital costs for a complete 4-hour Battery system.. 14 1 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at 1 Background Battery storage costs have changed rapidly over the past decade. In 2016, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) published a set of cost Projections for Utility-Scale lithium-ion batteries (Cole et al. 2016). Those 2016 Projections relied heavily on electric vehicle Battery Projections because Utility-Scale Battery Projections were largely unavailable for durations longer than 30 minutes.

9 In 2019, Battery cost Projections were updated based on publications that focused on Utility-Scale Battery systems (Cole and Frazier 2019), with a 2020 update published a year later (Cole and Frazier 2020). This report updates those cost Projections with data published in 2020 and early 2021. The Projections in this work focus on Utility-Scale lithium-ion Battery systems for use in capacity expansion models. NREL utilizes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) (Brown et al. 2020) and the Resource Planning Model (RPM) (Mai et al. 2013) for capacity expansion modeling , and the Battery cost Projections developed here are designed to be used in those models. Additionally, the Projections are intended to inform the cost Projections published in the Annual Technology Baseline (NREL 2020).

10 2 Methods The cost and performance Projections developed in this work use a literature-based approach in which Projections are generally based on the low, median, and highest values from the literature. Table 1 lists the publications that are presented in this work. Only the publications released in 2019-2021 are used to create the Projections , but the publications released in 2018 are shown in some figures for reference. Table 1. List of publications used in this study to determine Battery cost and performance Projections . Author or Organization Citation BNEF BNEF (2020b, 2020a) Brattle Hledik et al. (2018) CPUC CPUC (2020) EIA EIA (2021) EPRI EPRI (2020a, 2020b) IEA IEA (2020) Lazard Lazard (2020) NIPSCO NIPSCO (2018) NYSERDA NYSERDA (2018) PNNL Mongird et al. (2020) PSE PSE (2017) Schmidt et al.