FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050

1 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018 -2050 FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 3 2 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 LIVING DOCUMENTThe Fiji Low EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (LEDS) 2018-2050 shall be considered a living document in that information expressed in this publication represents the Fijian Government s current understanding of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from relevant sectors and current understanding of mitigation actions (including technology, finance, capacity building, and technical assistance needs), which can contribute to meeting the GHG reductions articulated in the four scenarios presented. The Fijian Government reserves the right to periodically update the Fiji LEDS, as may be needed, to ensure validity, transparency, and accuracy over time. Most notably, the Fijian Government understands that not all data relating to GHG emissions from the different sectors in the LEDS are currently fully known, nor are all mitigation actions fully investigated.

2 As such, the collection of additional data and the inclusion of new or improved technology, and its costs over time, will have an impact on future national Fiji Low EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 was developed under the guidance of the Ministry of Economy with support from the Global Green Growth Institute. Copyright 2018. Ministry of Economy, Government of the Republic of a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) such as Fiji, global temperature changes of C above pre-industrial temperatures and beyond would have catastrophic impacts on our environment, infrastructure, and livelihoods. As the President of the 23rd Conference of Parties (COP23), Fiji put the global spotlight on the escalating impacts that SIDS, as the world s most vulnerable populations, are facing today. This mission, like climate change itself, is not temporary; we continue to lead the world in climate action and will carry that torch by finding new ways to raise the bar for climate action and lead by example.

3 While Fiji s national carbon dioxide equivalent emissions make up a statistically-insignificant of global emissions, the Fijian Government and other non-government stakeholders in the country have already taken bold steps to achieve deep decarbonisation in all sectors of the Fijian collective national initiative takes form through long-term emissions reductions strategies, known together as the Fiji Low EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (LEDS). Fiji s LEDS came together through extensive national, sectoral, and bilateral consultations between the authors, Government ministries, civil society organisations, and the private sector. But in the end, this STRATEGY proved to be more than a policy, and more than a grand coalition it is our Fijian Story of raising ambition and climate LEDS is a visionary one, outlining long-term sustainable and resilient economy-wide mitigations pathways for more than the decades ahead, through to 2050.

4 Its DEVELOPMENT was an inclusive process which ensured that the modelled pathways had credible mitigation targets and provided synergies with sustainable economic growth. We all should be proud of the Fiji LEDS as it is among the first long term EMISSION reductions strategies in the world to address the Blue Carbon Sector and in our case, that blue focus is particularly honed on Fiji s vital mangrove ecosystems. We ve seen the wide-ranging benefits of cultivating the blue sector first-hand: reviving and restoring our mangroves not only sequesters carbon, but it allows sustenance of our people s livelihoods with a constant supply of fish and other marine organisms. The Fiji LEDS builds onto existing mitigation and adaptation actions that are being undertaken by the Fijian government and will inform Fiji s future Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

5 The STRATEGY will be a key tool, a guiding light, and a fundamental pillar to enhancing and raising ambition in our NDCs. It remains absolutely critical that we take urgent action, on a worldwide scale, to limit global temperature rise to C if life as we know it is to continue on planet earth. Warming beyond that level would be disastrous and irreversible for future generations. We urge nations to follow Fiji s lead by immediately and ambitiously reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and by aiming to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The future of our planet and of our children and grandchildren who will inherit it depends on it. Hon. Voreqe Bainimarama Prime Minister of the Republic of Fiji and President of COP23 Hon. Voreqe BainimaramaFIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 5 4 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Fiji Low EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (LEDS) 2018-2050 is a living document compiled in 2018 to define pathways to achieve low EMISSION DEVELOPMENT in Fiji until 2050.

6 Fiji is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its position as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), which leaves the country exposed to sea-level rise, cyclones of increasing intensity, and flooding, among other potential consequences. It is therefore imperative to take ambitious and rapid action to address climate change, through greenhouse gas (GHG) EMISSION reductions. Through this LEDS, Fiji will continue its climate leadership which, to-date, has included serving as the President of the 23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the ambitious near-term targets Fiji committed to under its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). As the central goal of this LEDS, Fiji aims to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 across all sectors of its economy through pathways defined in this LEDS. To achieve this core objective, the LEDS has elaborated four possible low EMISSION scenarios for Fiji: A Business-as-Usual (BAU) Unconditional scenario, which reflects the implementation of existing and official policies, targets, and technologies that are unconditional in the sense that Fiji would implement and finance them without reliance on external or international financing.

7 A BAU Conditional scenario, which reflects the implementation of existing and official policies, targets, and technologies that are conditional in the sense that Fiji would rely on external or international financing to implement mitigation actions, thus this scenario would have higher ambition than BAU Unconditional. A High Ambition scenario projects ambitions beyond those already specified in policies, relying on the adoption of new, more ambitious policies and technologies and availability of additional financing to implement mitigation actions, and achieves significant EMISSION reductions by 2050 compared with the business-as-usual scenarios. A Very High Ambition scenario projects ambitions well beyond those already specified in policies, thus relying on the adoption of new, significantly more ambitious policies and availability of new technologies and additional financing to implement mitigation actions, and in which most sectors achieve net zero or negative emissions, by 2050.

8 These scenarios were elaborated for each sector, including: electricity and other energy use; land transport; domestic maritime transport; domestic air transport; agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU); and waste. Coastal wetlands (blue carbon) was also considered. The scenarios were then aggregated to build a whole-of-economy EMISSION reductions pathway for each scenario. Following extensive stakeholder consultations, analysis, and modelling of different scenarios for each sector, the LEDS shows that under the Very High Ambition scenario net zero emissions can be achieved during the year 2041, after which emissions would increasingly be net negative. The most significant mitigation of emissions would result from complete transformation of Fiji s energy sector to one based on a wide variety of on-grid and off-grid renewable energy generation. This transformation in the energy sector would involve the adoption of clean energy for commercial, industrial, and household use, as well as the conversion of most of Fiji s land transport systems to electric vehicles.

9 The domestic aviation and maritime sectors will also convert to electricity at a more modest scale, while introducing other measures which will drastically reduce emissions. Under the Very High Ambition scenario, Fiji s energy sector itself will be virtually GHG EMISSION free by 2050. Similarly, emissions from the waste sector will be reduced to nearly zero due to full methane capture and utilization for organic waste and extensive waste reduction and recycling programs. Fiji is able to ultimately achieve net negative emissions as a result of extensive afforestation measures, reduced deforestation, and increased use of sustainable forest plantations in the AFOLU sector. The LEDS estimates that Fiji s emissions would more than double under BAU Unconditional scenario, grow incrementally under the BAU Conditional scenario, drop by nearly 31% under the High Ambition scenario, and achieve net negative emissions during the year 2041 under the Very High Ambition scenario.

10 See Table 1 and Figure 1 below. Table 1. Total Net Emissions for Fiji under four LEDS scenarios (all values in metric tonnes CO2e).Scenario 2020202520302035204020452050 BAU Unconditional2,344,8682,511,3952,812,491 3,204,7773,602,6744,047,3574,544,058 BAU Conditional2,279,9482,200,4372,232,8852, 259,7452,300,6412,286,0082,363,344 High Ambition2,259,5782,032,1071,897,6651,732 ,0421,592,8151,499,3571,399,040 Very High Ambition2,250,5641,712,5951,264,809637,6 01136,430-422,128-782,767 Figure 1. Total Net Emissions for Fiji under the four LEDS scenarios (all values in metric tonnes CO2e). As the central goal of this LEDS, Fiji aims to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 across all sectors of its economy FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 I 7 6 I FIJI LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2018-2050 Each of the EMISSION reduction scenarios detailed for each sector in this LEDS is underpinned by a range of key policies and actions that must be undertaken in each sector to achieve the EMISSION reductions.