Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software & …

1 Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software & Society Deep Shift Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact Survey Report, September 2015 . WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM, 2015 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. REF 310815. Contents Preface 3 Preface 4 Introduction 4 Survey Methodology Victoria Espinel Software has the potential to drastically change our lives. 5 The Six Megatrends 6 Survey Results Chair, Global Earlier this year, the World Economic Forum's Global 8 The Tipping Points (Shifts) Agenda Council Agenda Council on the Future of Software and Society 8 1: Implantable on the Future of set out to help people prepare for changes enabled by Technologies Software & Society Software . We found 21 examples of these that will have far- World Economic reaching impacts on human health, the environment, Global 9 2: Our Digital Presence Forum commerce and international relations.

2 10 3: Vision as the New Interface President and Chief We are entering a time of momentous societal shifts 11 4: Wearable Internet Executive Officer brought on by advancements in Software . According to Erik 12 5: Ubiquitous Computing BSA | The Software Brynjolfsson, Council Vice-Chair; Director, MIT Initiative on 13 6: A Supercomputer in Alliance, USA the Digital Economy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Your Pocket USA, and a prolific author: Now comes the second 15 7: Storage for All machine age. Computers and other digital advances are doing for mental power the ability to use our brains to 16 8: The Internet of and for understand and shape our environments what the steam Things engine and its descendants did for muscle power.. 17 9: The Connected Home 18 10: Smart Cities These changes will impact people around the world. 19 11: Big Data for Decisions Inventions previously seen only in science fiction, such as 20 12: Driverless Cars artificial intelligence, connected devices and 3D printing, 21 13: Artificial Intelligence will enable us to connect and invent in ways we never and Decision-Making have before.

3 Businesses will automate complicated tasks, reduce production costs and reach new markets. Continued 22 14: AI and White-Collar growth in internet access will further accelerate change. Jobs In Sub-Saharan Africa and other underdeveloped regions, 23 15: Robotics and Services connectivity has the potential to redefine Global trade, lift 24 16: Bitcoin and the people out of poverty and topple political regimes. And Blockchain for many of us, seemingly simple Software innovations will 25 17: The Sharing Economy transform our daily routines. These changes are not without 26 18: Governments and the their challenges; as technology improves the lives of many, Blockchain we hope to help prepare people to understand and address 27 19: 3D Printing and concerns on privacy, security and job disruption. Manufacturing I would like to thank my colleagues who serve on the Global 29 20: 3D Printing and Human Agenda Council on the Future of Software & Society for their Health efforts to help people around the world better understand 30 21: 3D Printing and and prepare for these shifts.

4 This report is a small first step Consumer Products in understanding the changes that lie ahead. We hope it will 32 Cross-Cutting Impacts provide important insights to consider as we navigate the 32 Jobs and the Nature of complex issues related to changing technologies. Work 33 Security 33 Transparency, Trust and Privacy 34 The Economy 35 Government 36 Organizations, Communities and the Individual 37 Shifting Ownership 38 Conclusion 39 Appendix 40 Endnotes 42 Acknowledgements Deep Shift - Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact 3. Introduction Survey Methodology Digital connectivity permeates all aspects of daily life In March 2015 , the Global Agenda Council on the Future from the way people interact to the economic landscape, of Software & Society launched the Technological Tipping political decision-making and the skills needed to get a Points survey. Based on the Council 's discussions over job. A greater reliance on networked resources makes previous months, the survey asked respondents for their people more interdependent, while many stakeholders are views on 21 tipping points moments when specific concerned about whether the industry can strike the right technological shifts hit mainstream society.

5 Balance between privacy, security and trust. Aiming to provide a snapshot of expectations from a At the same time, increasing digitization is driving industries community of over 800 executives and experts from the from product-based to service-based offerings. While information and communications technology sector, the these offerings are highly automated and standardized, survey asked respondents for their perception of when they are also personalized through Software . The seamless these tipping points would occur, offering date ranges from integration of the physical and digital worlds through it has already happened to 20+ years . The option of networked sensors, actuators, embedded hardware and never was also available. A total of 816 responses were Software will change industrial models. received. In short, the world is about to experience an exponential The results were aggregated, analysed and collated into two rate of change through the rise of Software and services.

6 Main formats. Firstly, a weighted mean system was used to calculate the average year by which each tipping point was The mandate of the World Economic Forum's Global expected to have occurred. The resulting timeline (Figure 1). Agenda Council on the Future of Software & Society is to ranges from 2018 to 2027. To calculate this effectively, the help society navigate the impacts of the shifts to come. responses of those who answered never were discounted;. thus, the timeline reflects the perceptions only of those who Building on this mandate, the Council aims to help the thought the shift would occur at some point in broader society navigate the transition to the Future digital and hyperconnected world by explaining the societal Secondly, to get a more Global view of the momentous impacts generated by major technology trends and the new change within the next decade, the percentage of people business models in plain language, and through engaging, who answered 10 years or less for each tipping point was accessible media.

7 Aggregated. The resulting overview of the expectations in 2025 are shown in the Table. This report is the first of its kind one aimed at trying to capture some of the deep shifts occurring in society as a result of Software and services, and to encourage everyone to think about the impact of these changes on our society and how to prepare for the changes ahead. 4 Deep Shift - Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact The Six Megatrends As a foundation to its work, the Council sought to identify Artificial intelligence (AI) and big data the Software and services megatrends which are shaping Exponential digitization creates exponentially more data . society, and their associated opportunities and risks. about everything and everyone. In parallel, the sophistication of the problems Software can address, and the ability for People and the internet Software to learn and evolve itself, is advancing rapidly. How people connect with others, information and the world This is built on the rise of big data for decision-making, and around them is being transformed through a combination the influence that AI and robotics are starting to have on of technologies.

8 Wearable and implantable technologies decision-making and jobs. will enhance people's digital presence , allowing them to interact with objects and one another in new ways. The sharing economy and distributed trust The internet is driving a shift towards networks and Computing, communications and storage everywhere platform-based social and economic models. Assets can The continued rapid decline in the size and cost of be shared, creating not just new efficiencies but also whole computing and connectivity technologies is driving an new business models and opportunities for social self- exponential growth in the potential to access and leverage organization. The blockchain, an emerging technology, the internet. This will lead to ubiquitous computing replaces the need for third-party institutions to provide trust power being available, where everyone has access to a for financial, contract and voting activities. supercomputer in their pocket, with nearly unlimited storage capacity.

9 The digitization of matter Physical objects are printed from raw materials via The Internet of Things additive, or 3D, printing, a process that transforms industrial Smaller, cheaper and smarter sensors are being introduced manufacturing, allows for printing products at home and in homes, clothes and accessories, cities, transport and creates a whole set of human health opportunities. energy networks, as well as manufacturing processes. Deep Shift - Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact 5. Survey Results Respondents who thought the tipping points (shifts) would occur at some point in time provided the years when they expected that these would occur (Figure 1), with the earliest shift in 2018 and the latest in 2027. The results show that a significant number of shifts were expected to occur in the early years of the next decade. Figure 1: Average Year Each Tipping Point Is Expected to Occur 1. 2018 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027. Storage for Robot and The Internet Implantable Ubiquitous 3D Printing Driverless Bitcoin All Services of and for Technologies Computing and Cars and the Things Big Data for 3D Printing Consumer AI and Blockchain Wearable Decisions and Human Products Decision- Internet Vision as the Health AI and Making 3D New Interface The White-Collar Smart Cities Printing and Our Digital Connected Jobs Manufacturing Presence Home The Sharing Economy Governments and the Blockchain A.

10 Supercomputer in Your Pocket The survey results were also analysed to see what percentage of the respondents expected the tipping point to have occurred by 2025, or ten years from now. Eleven of the 21 transition points had a high expectation (over 80%) of occurring by this date. 6 Deep Shift - Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact Table: Tipping Points Expected to Occur by 2025. %. 10% of people wearing clothes connected to the internet 90% of people having unlimited and free (advertising-supported) storage 1 trillion sensors connected to the internet The first robotic pharmacist in the US 10% of reading glasses connected to the internet 80% of people with a digital presence on the internet The first 3D-printed car in production The first government to replace its census with big-data sources The first implantable mobile phone available commercially 5% of consumer products printed in 3D 90% of the population using smartphones 90% of the population with regular access to the internet Driverless cars equalling 10% of all cars on US roads The first transplant of a 3D-printed liver 30% of corporate audits performed by AI Tax collected for the first time by a government via a blockchain Over 50% of internet traffic to homes for appliances and devices Globally more trips/journeys via car sharing than in private cars The first city with more than 50.