Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction

1 Global warming : A very Short IntroductionVery Short Introductions are for anyone wanting a stimulatingand accessible way in to a new subject. They are written by experts, and havebeen published in more than 25 languages series began in 1995, and now represents a wide variety of topicsin history, philosophy, religion, science, and the humanities. Over the nextfew years it will grow to a library of around 200 volumes a very ShortIntroduction to everything from ancient Egypt and Indian philosophy toconceptual art and Short Introductions available now:ANARCHISMC olin WardANCIENT EGYPTIan ShawANCIENT PHILOSOPHYJ ulia AnnasANCIENT WARFAREH arry SidebottomTHE ANGLO-SAXON AGEJohn BlairANIMAL RIGHTSD avid DeGraziaARCHAEOLOGYPaul BahnARCHITECTUREA ndrew BallantyneARISTOTLEJ onathan BarnesART HISTORYDana ArnoldART THEORY Cynthia FreelandTHE HISTORY OFASTRONOMYM ichael HoskinAtheismJulian Baggini AugustineHenry ChadwickBARTHESJ onathan CullerTHE BIBLEJohn RichesBRITISH POLITICSA nthony WrightBuddhaMichael CarrithersBUDDHISMD amien KeownCAPITALISMJ ames FulcherTHE CELTSB arry Cunliffe CHOICE THEORYM ichael AllinghamCHRISTIAN ARTBeth WilliamsonCHRISTIANITYL inda WoodheadCLASSICS Mary Beard andJohn HendersonCLAUSEWITZM ichael HowardTHE COLD WAR Robert McMahonContinental PhilosophySimon CritchleyCOSMOLOGYP eter ColesCRYPTOGRAPHYFred

2 Piper and Sean MurphyDADA AND SURREALISMD avid HopkinsDarwinJonathan HowardDemocracyBernard CrickDESCARTESTom SorellDRUGSL eslie IversenTHE EARTHM artin RedfernEGYPTIAN MYTHG eraldine PinchEIGHTEENTH-CENTURYBRITAINPaul LangfordEMOTIOND ylan EvansEMPIRES tephen HoweENGELST errell CarverEthicsSimon BlackburnThe European UnionJohn PinderEVOLUTIONB rian and Deborah CharlesworthFASCISMK evin PassmoreTHE FRENCH REVOLUTIONW illiam DoyleFREE WILLT homas PinkFreudAnthony StorrGalileoStillman DrakeGandhiBhikhu ParekhGLOBALIZATIONM anfred Steger Global WARMINGMark MaslinHEGELP eter SingerHEIDEGGERM ichael InwoodHIEROGLYPHSP enelope WilsonHINDUISMKim KnottHISTORYJohn H. ArnoldHOBBESR ichard TuckHUMEA. J. AyerIDEOLOGYM ichael FreedenIndian PhilosophySue HamiltonIntelligenceIan J. DearyISLAMM alise RuthvenJUDAISMN orman SolomonJungAnthony StevensKAFKAR itchie RobertsonKANTR oger ScrutonKIERKEGAARDP atrick GardinerTHE KORANM ichael CookLINGUISTICSP eter MatthewsLITERARY THEORYJ onathan CullerLOCKEJohn DunnLOGICG raham PriestMACHIAVELLIQ uentin SkinnerMARXP eter SingerMATHEMATICST imothy GowersMEDICAL ETHICSTo ny H o p eMEDIEVAL BRITAINJohn Gillingham and Ralph A.

3 GriffithsMODERN IRELANDS enia Pas e t aMOLECULESP hilip BallMUSICN icholas CookMythRobert A. Segal NIETZSCHEM ichael TannerNINETEENTH-CENTURYBRITAINC hristopher Harvie andH. C. G. MatthewNORTHERN IRELANDMarc MulhollandPARTICLE PHYSICSF rank ClosepaulE. P. SandersPhilosophyEdward CraigPHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCES amir OkashaPLATOJ ulia AnnasPOLITICSK enneth MinoguePOLITICAL PHILOSOPHYD avid MillerPOSTCOLONIALISMR obert YoungPOSTMODERNISMC hristopher ButlerPOSTSTRUCTURALISMC atherine BelseyPREHISTORYC hris GosdenPRESOCRATIC PHILOSOPHYC atherine OsbornePsychologyGillian Butler andFreda McManusQUANTUM THEORYJohn PolkinghorneROMAN BRITAINP eter SalwayROUSSEAUR obert WoklerRUSSELLA. C. GraylingRUSSIAN LITERATUREC atriona KellyTHE RUSSIAN REVOLUTIONS. A. SmithSCHIZOPHRENIAC hris Frith and Eve JohnstoneSCHOPENHAUERC hristopher JanawaySHAKESPEAREG ermaine GreerSOCIAL AND CULTURALANTHROPOLOGYJohn Monaghan and Peter JustSOCIOLOGYS teve BruceSocratesC.

4 C. W. TaylorSPINOZAR oger ScrutonSTUART BRITAINJohn MorrillTERRORISMC harles TownshendTHEOLOGYD avid F. FordTHE TUDORSJohn GuyTWENTIETH-CENTURYBRITAINK enneth O. MorganWittgensteinA. C. GraylingWORLD MUSICP hilip BohlmanAvailable soon:AFRICAN HISTORYJohn Parker and Richard RathboneTHE BRAINM ichael O SheaBUDDHIST ETHICSD amien KeownCHAOSL eonard SmithCITIZENSHIPR ichard BellamyCLASSICAL ARCHITECTURER obert TavernorCLONINGA rlene Judith KlotzkoCONSCIOUSNESSSue BlackmoreCONTEMPORARY ARTJ ulian StallabrassTHE CRUSADESC hristopher TyermanDerridaSimon GlendinningDESIGNJohn HeskettDinosaursDavid NormanDREAMINGJ. Allan HobsonECONOMICSP artha DasguptaTHE ELEMENTSP hilip BallTHE END OF THE WORLDBill McGuireEXISTENTIALISMT homas Flynn FEMINISMM argaret WaltersTHE FIRST WORLD WARM ichael HowardFOUCAULTG arry GuttingFUNDAMENTALISMM alise RuthvenHabermasGordon Finlayson HIROSHIMAB.

5 R. TomlinsonHUMAN EVOLUTIONB ernard Wood INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSPaul WilkinsonJAZZB rian MortonMANDELATom LodgeTHE MINDM artin DaviesMODERN ARTD avid CottingtonNATIONALISMS teven GrosbyPERCEPTIONR ichard GregoryPHILOSOPHY OF RELIGIONJack Copeland and Diane ProudfootPHOTOGRAPHYS teve EdwardsTHE RAJD enis JuddTHE RENAISSANCEJ erry BrottonRENAISSANCE ARTG eraldine JohnsonROMAN EMPIREC hristopher KellySARTREC hristina HowellsTHE SPANISH CIVIL WARH elen GrahamTIMEL eofranc Holford-StrevensTRAGEDYA drian PooleTHE TWENTIETH CENTURYM artin ConwayFor more information visit our web MaslinGLOBALWARMINGA very Short Introduction13 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford ox2 6dpOxford University Press is a department of the University of furthers the University s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,and education by publishing worldwide inOxford New YorkAuckland Bangkok Buenos Aires Cape Town ChennaiDar es Salaam Delhi Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi KolkataKuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai NairobiS o Paulo Shanghai Taipei Tokyo TorontoOxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Pressin the UK and in certain other countriesPublished in the United Statesby Oxford University Press Inc.

6 , New York Mark Maslin 2004 The moral rights of the author have been assertedDatabase right Oxford University Press (maker)First published as a very Short Introduction 2004 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press,or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriatereprographics rights organizations. Enquiries concerning reproductionoutside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department,Oxford University Press, at the address aboveYou must not circulate this book in any other binding or coverand you must impose this same condition on any acquirerBritish Library Cataloguing in Publication DataData availableLibrary of Congress Cataloging in Publication DataData availableISBN 0 19 284097 513579108642 Typeset by RefineCatch Ltd, Bungay, SuffolkPrinted in Great Britain byTJ International Ltd.

7 , Padstow, CornwallContentsAcknowledgementsixAbbrev iationsxiList of illustrations xiiiIntroduction11 What is Global warming ?42A brief history of the Global warming hypothesis233 Your viewpoint determines the future364 What is the evidence for climate change?435 How do you model the future?676 What are the possible future impacts of globalwarming?837 Surprises1028 Politics1189 What are the alternatives?13410 Conclusion146 Further reading151 Index153 This page intentionally left blank AcknowledgementsThe author would like to thank the following people: Johanna andAlexandra Maslin for being there; Emma Simmons and Marsha Filionfor their excellent editing and skill of finally extracting the bookfrom me; Catherine D Alton and Elanor McBay of the Department ofGeography Drawing Office UCL; John Adams for helping me developmy critical view of this debate; Richard Betts and Eric Wolff for theirinsightful and extremely helpful reviews.

8 And all my colleagues inclimatology, palaeoclimatology, social science, and economics whocontinue to strive to understand and predict our influence on page intentionally left blank AbbreviationsAABWA ntarctic Bottom WaterAOArctic OscillationAOGCMA tmosphere Ocean General Circulation ModelsAOSISA lliance of Small Island StatesBINGOB usiness and Industry Non-Governmental OrganizationCFCschlorofluorocarbonsCOPC onference of the PartiesENGOE nvironmental Non-Governmental OrganizationENSOEl Nin~o-Southern OscillationGCMgeneral circulation modelGCRgalactic cosmic rayGHCMG lobal Historical Climate NetworkIPCCI ntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeJUSSCANNZ Japan, USA, Switzerland, Canada, Australia,Norway and New ZealandMATmarine air temperatureNADWN orth Atlantic deep waterNAON orth Atlantic OscillationNGONon-Governmental OrganizationNRCN ational Research CouncilOECDO rganization for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentOPECO rganization of Petroleum Exporting Countriesppbvparts per billion by volumeppmvparts per million by volumeSSTsea-surface temperatureTHCT hermohaline CirculationUNCTADU nited Nations Conference on Trade andDevelopmentUNFCCCU nited Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChangeVBDvector-borne diseaseList of illustrations1 The earth s annualglobal mean energybalance52 Greenhouse gases andtemperature for the lastfour glacial cyclesrecorded in the Vostok icecore73 Indicators of the humaninfluence on theatmosphere compositionduring the industrialera94aCO2

9 Emissions fromindustrial processes124bCO2 emissions fromland-use change125 Possible climate systemresponses to alinear-forcing186 Variation of the earth ssurface temperature307 Global warmingand the media328 The four myths ofnature379 Four myths of humannature3910 Four rationalities4011 Combined globalwarming scenarioswith myths of humannature4112 The anatomy of pastclimatic changes4413 Northern Hemispheretemperaturereconstruction for thelast thousand years4714 Global distributionof meteorologicalstations5015 Changes in precipitationover land5416 Estimated sea-levelrise 1910 19905617 Mozambique floodsof 20005918 Ice core records showingCO 2 in phase withAntarctic warming6119 Simulated annualglobal mean surfacetemperatures6320 Schematic of observedvariations of thea) temperature indicatorsand b)

10 Hydrological andstorm-relatedindicators6421 Locations at whichsystematic long-termstudies meet stringentcriteria documentingrecent climate changeimpacts on physicaland biological systems 6622 The development ofclimate models, past,present, and future6923A simplified version ofthe present carboncycle7224 Global , annual-meanradiative forcings7425 The Global climateof the 21st century7626 Flooding of Bangladeshin 19988627El Nin~o SouthernOscillation9228 The deep circulationof the ocean10629 Different possiblecirculation of thedeep ocean10830 Future sea levelchanges11031 Bifurcation of theclimate system11132 Met office model of CO2concentration and meantemperature over time 11533 Five different costscenarios12934 Climate change riskswith increasing globaltemperatures135 IntroductionGlobal warming is one of the most controversial science issues ofthe 21st century, challenging the very structure of our Global problem is that Global warming is not just a scientific concern,but encompasses economics, sociology, geopolitics, local politics,and individuals choice of lifestyle.