Indonesia Energy Outlook 2019 - ESDM

1 ISSN 2527 3000iiiIndonesia Energy Outlook 2019 Indonesia Energy Outlook (IEO) 2019 has been published by Secretariat General of the National Energy Council since 2014. To obtain current data and information as well as future development plan of Energy , related internal units in the Ministry of Energy and mineral Resources and other units outside the Ministry of Energy and mineral Resources have been formulating IEO 2019 , Secretary General of the National Energy Council has coordinated with internal unit in MEMR especially Pusdatin (Center for Data and Information of MEMR) in relation to current Energy data. Meanwhile, Directorate General of Oil and Gas, Directorate General of mineral and Coal, Directorate General of Electricity, and Directorate General of New and Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation take part in formulating future Energy development plan data such as city gas development plan, biofuel mandatory, and power plant development plan.

2 Besides that, in order to obtain the demand projection per sector, there has been coordination with external units including Ministry of Industry in relations to electric car development plan, Ministry of Transportation in relations to mass transportation development plan, and Ministry of Environment in relations to emission reduction plan. To enrich the data in each industrial sub sector, Asosiasi Semen Indonesia (ASI/ Indonesia Cement Association), Asosiasi Produsen Pupuk Indonesia (APPI/Indonesian Fertilizer Producers Association), and Asosiasi Aneka Keramik Indonesia (ASAKI/ Indonesia Ceramic Industry Association) have been involved. Thus, the calculation of Energy intensity per industrial sub sector is more improving the quality of Energy demand and supply projection, Secretary General of the National Energy Council will strengthen the cooperation with related units in the future.

3 Thus, the book of IEO will be a reliable and trusted reference. Jakarta, September 2019 Secretary General of the National Energy CouncilDjoko SiswantoINTRODUCTIONivIndonesia Energy Outlook 2019 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2019 is a study on future Energy demand and supply projection in various situation and condition based on the trend developing assumption by using Energy planning modeling application. The model to analyze the Energy demand and supply is LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) as an Energy planning modeling application to analyze integrated demand and supply condition. Besides that, Balmorel is also used a special Energy planning modeling application to calculate electricity with optimization approach.

4 Furthermore, the formulation of IEO is continuously improved both in terms of the latest data and information as well as the methodology. Based on the analysis, there is an increase of accuracy in the final Energy demand projection in 2016, 2017 and 2018 from IEO 2016 to IEO 2017. From the comparison, there is a smaller disparity between final Energy demand projection and final Energy consumption realization ( accuracy). Indonesia Energy Outlook 2019 needs further improvement in the future. Constructive critics and suggestions are required to improve the next IEO. We sincerely hope that this book would be beneficial for the government, regional government, investors in Energy sector, and Indonesian people for the purpose of developing Energy in Indonesia .

5 Jakarta, September 2019 Head of Energy Policy BureauSugeng MujiyantoINTRODUCTIONvIndonesia Energy Outlook 2019 AdvisorSecretary General of National Energy Council Djoko SiswantoSupervisorHead of Energy Policy Facilitation and Assembly Bureau Sugeng MujiyantoWritersSuharyatiSadmoko Hesti PambudiJamaludin Lastiko WibowoNurina Indah PratiwiEditorSaleh AbdurrahmanMustika PertiwiWalujantoACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe would like to convey our gratitude to all related parties for the inputs and sug-gestions in formulating IEO 2019 :- Members of National Energy Council from stakeholders,- Permanent Representative of National Energy Council Members from the government,- Embassy of Denmark and Danish Energy Directorate General of Oil and Gas, Directorate General of Electricity, Directorate General of mineral and Coal, Directorate General of New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation, Data and Information Center of MEMR (Pusdatin KESDM), PT PLN and PT PGN,- Energy experts for their assistance in writing IEO BOARDviIndonesia Energy Outlook 2019 IEO 2019 is an analysis on the long term national Energy demand and supply projection ( 2019 -2050)

6 With particular assumptions which are developed for the purpose of future Energy scenario planning. The assumptions and projections are based on Energy technology development both fossil Energy and renewable Energy based on current data and condition. The data in this IEO is derived from official publication, temporary data, or updated data by the sources. DIscLOsuREviiIndonesia Energy Outlook 2019 INTRODUCTION .. iiiACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .. v EDITORIAL BOARD .. vDISCLOSURE .. viTABLE OF CONTENTS .. viiLIST OF FIGURES .. ix LIST OF TABLES .. xiEXECUTIVE SUMMARY .. xiiCHAPTER I INTRODUCTION .. Current Energy Condition .. Oil .. Gas.

7 Coal .. New and Renewable Energy .. Electricity .. Projection Accuracy .. Methodology .. Modeling Analysis Framework .. Energy Projection Scenario .. Modeling Assumption .. 14 CHAPTER II Energy DEMAND Outlook .. Industry .. Transportation .. Household .. Commercial Sector .. Other Sectors .. 30 CHAPTER III Energy SUPPLY Outlook .. Oil Supply .. Gas Supply .. Coal Supply .. NRE Supply .. 41 TABLE OF cONTENTsISSN 2527 3000viiiIndonesia Energy Outlook 2019 CHAPTER IV ELECTRICITY Outlook .. 45 Electricity Demand .. 45 Electricity Production.

8 48 Total Power Plant Capacity .. 50 CHAPTER V CO2 EMISSION Outlook .. 57 CHAPTER VI CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION .. 63 Conclusion .. 63 Recommendation .. 64 ATTACHMENT I DEFINITION .. 67 ATTACHMENT II LIST OF ABBREVIATION .. 71 ATTACHMENT III TABLE OF Outlook SUMMARY .. 73ixIndonesia Energy Outlook 2019 Figure Crude Oil Import Dependency Growth .. 2 Figure Fuel Production and Import .. 3 Figure Gas Production and Export Growth .. 3 Figure Coal Production Realization and Export .. 4 Figure Biodiesel Production, Export and Utilization 7 Figure Power Plant Installed capacity per Energy Source Year 2018 .. 8 Figure Power Plant Capacity Year 9 Figure Electricity Production per Energy Source Year 2018.

9 9 Figure Electricity Sale 2018 .. 10 Figure Modeling Analysis Framework .. 11 Figure LEAP and Balmorel Synergy .. 12 Figure Comparison of Final Energy Demand Three Scenarios .. 21 Figure Final Energy Demand per Sector .. 22 Figure Final Energy Demand per Energy Source .. 23 Figure Energy Demand in Industry by Energy Source .. 24 Figure Energy Demand in Six Major Industry Sub Sectors .. 24 Figure Energy Demand in Transportation .. 25 Figure Energy Demand by Mode of Transportation .. 27 Figure Projection of Rural and Urban People's Share until 2035 .. 27 Figure Energy Demand Projection in Household .. 28 Figure Energy Demand in Commercial Sector by Energy Source.

10 29 Figure Final Energy Demand in Commercial Sector by Energy Source .. 30 Figure Final Energy Demand by Commercial Sub Sector .. 31 Figure Primary Energy Mix Growth by BaU Scenario .. 36 Figure Primary Energy Mix Comparison by PB Scenario .. 37 Figure Primary Energy Mix Comparison by RK Scenario .. 37 Figure Primary Energy Supply Projection per Capita .. 38 Figure Crude Oil Supply Trend .. 39 Figure Gas Supply .. 40 Figure Coal Supply Projection .. 40 Figure NRE Supply .. 41 Figure Comparison on the Number of Electric Vehicle .. 46 Figure Elecetricity Demand by Sector .. 47 LIsT OF FIGuREsxIndonesia Energy Outlook 2019 Figure Electricity Consumption Group per Capita.