Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System

1 Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System User Guide for LEAP 2005 May 2005 STOCKHOLMENVIRONMENTINSTITUTES E IBoston Center, Tellus Institute11 Arlington Street, Boston, MA, 02116 USA Download the latest version of LEAP from Table of Contents 1 1 2 GETTING STARTED .. 3 3 BASIC 5 4 VIEWS .. 8 ANALYSIS 10 RESULTS 16 DIAGRAM 20 Energy BALANCE 22 SUMMARIES 25 OVERVIEWS 28 30 5 MAIN MENU .. 31 6 INTERFACE .. 34 THE 34 MAIN 41 CHART 42 TABLE 43 ANALYSIS VIEW 43 7 scenarios .. 45 8 MAJOR SUPPORTING SCREENS .. 47 MANAGE 47 NEW 50 BASIC 51 56 FUEL 58 59 REGION 60 61 63 64 LIFECYCLE 65 LOAD 67 TIME 68 CALCULATION 71 USER 72 TIME-SERIES 73 EXPRESSION 77 MANAGE 80 CREATE SCENARIO/SCENARIO KEY 82 SCENARIO 82 9 KEY 85 10 DEMAND.

2 87 DEMAND 87 DEMAND BRANCH 88 i Table Of Contents ACTIVITY 90 ACTIVITY ANALYSIS 93 ACTIVITY ANALYSIS 100 STOCK 103 STOCK ANALYSIS 103 STOCK ANALYSIS 105 TRANSPORT 107 TRANSPORT ANALYSIS 107 TRANSPORT ANALYSIS 110 11 113 MODULE 116 PROCESS 119 129 TRANSFORMATION 131 12 STOCK CHANGES AND STATISTICAL 137 13 RESOURCE ANALYSIS ..139 14 COST-BENEFIT 141 15 NON- Energy SECTOR EFFECTS .. 143 16 RESULTS 144 STATISTICAL 146 146 147 151 152 ENVIRONMENTAL 152 17 TED: THE TECHNOLOGY & ENVIRONMENTAL DATABASE .. 155 INFORMATION 156 DATA 157 TED DATA SUMMARY 158 ENVIRONMENTAL LOADINGS FACTORS 159 TED 160 TED EXPRESSION 161 18 162 EXPRESSION 165 RESERVED 166 19 EXPRESSIONS REFERENCE.

3 168 MODELING 168 MATHEMATICAL 191 LOGICAL 195 20 TECHNICAL HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE 201 INDEX .. 202 ii 1 Introduction The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is a scenario- based Energy -environment modeling tool . Its scenarios are based on comprehensive accounting of how Energy is consumed, converted and produced in a given region or economy under a range of alternative assumptions on population, economic development, technology, price and so on. With its flexible data structures, LEAP allows for analysis as rich in technological specification and end-use detail as the user chooses. With LEAP, the user can go beyond simple accounting to build sophisticated simulations and data structures.

4 Unlike macroeconomic models, LEAP does not attempt to estimate the impact of Energy policies on employment or GDP, although such models can be run in conjunction with LEAP. Similarly, LEAP does not automatically generate optimum or market-equilibrium scenarios , although it can be used to identify least-cost scenarios . Important advantages of LEAP are its flexibility and ease-of-use, which allow decision makers to move rapidly from policy ideas to policy analysis without having to resort to more complex models. LEAP serves several purposes: as a database, it provides a comprehensive System for maintaining Energy information; as a forecasting tool , it enables the user to make projections of Energy supply and demand over a long -term Planning horizon; as a policy analysis tool , it simulates and assesses the effects - physical, economic, and environmental - of alternative Energy programs, investments, and actions.

5 You can use LEAP to project the Energy supply and demand situation in order to glimpse future patterns, identify potential problems, and assess the likely impacts of Energy policies. LEAP can assist you to examine a wide variety of projects, programs, technologies and other Energy initiatives, and arrive at strategies that best address environmental and Energy problems. 1 2 Getting Started These help files contain comprehensive information on using LEAP. To get started, we suggest you familiarize yourself with some of the major concepts: Help: Use the Help menu to get access to LEAP's on-line documentation (help is organized using an index, a table of contents and can also be searched).

6 In addition, you can press the F1 function key to get context-sensitive help anywhere in LEAP. Pressing F1 will give you a page of help relevant to the screen you are working on. Views: LEAP is structured as eight different "views" onto an Energy System or "Area". These views are listed as graphical icons on the View Bar, normally located on the left of the screen. Types of Analysis: You can conduct a variety of analyses of Energy systems using LEAP, including Demand Analysis, Transformation Analysis, Resource Analysis, and Environmental Analysis. All of these analyses can be combined together in LEAP to conduct Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) and greenhouse gas mitigation analyses, both of which rely upon conducting integrated social cost-benefit analysis.

7 LEAP also optionally lets you create inventories and scenarios for Non- Energy Related Effects. Data Structures: The main Demand, Transformation and Resource data structures in a LEAP area are organized using a hierarchical tree. Different types of branches in the tree are represented as different icons (pictures). The types of data entered at each branch depend on the type of branch, its position in the tree (for example whether it is a Demand or Transformation branch), and the properties () you set for that branch. In addition to the tree, a number of cross-cutting supporting databases are also employed including the Fuels, Effects, Units and References databases.

8 Scenario analysis is at the heart of using LEAP. scenarios are self-consistent story-lines of how a future Energy System might evolve over time in a particular demographic and socio-economic setting and under a particular set of policy conditions. User Interface: The main screen of the LEAP System consists of the View Bar on the left of the screen, a main menu and main toolbar at the top providing access to the most important functions of the program, and a status bar a the bottom of the screen showing the current area name, current view, licensing information and other status information. The layout of the rest of the screen will depend on which view is selected.

9 NB: This documentation assumes you are familiar with using Windows- based programs. 3 Technology Database: LEAP includes TED: the Technology and Environmental Database. TED provides extensive information describing the technical characteristics, costs and environmental impacts of a wide range of Energy technologies. The quantitative data in TED is supplemented by qualitative Information Pages that review the availability, appropriateness, cost-effectiveness and key environmental issues of a wide range of Energy technologies. Additional Information is available on the hardware and software requirements of LEAP, and on obtaining technical support.

10 Please refer to the LEAP web site for information on how to license the full version of LEAP. 4 3 Basic Concepts Expressions LEAP borrows an approach made popular in spreadsheets: the ability for users to enter data and construct models using mathematical expressions. Expressions are standard mathematical formulae used to specify the values of variables in LEAP's Analysis View. In Current Accounts an expression defines the base year value for a given variable at a branch, while in scenarios , the expression defines how that variable changes over time (from one year after the base year to the end of the study period). Expressions can range from simple numeric values to complex mathematical formulae.