National

1 Update: 2021 12 20 ncov/covid data/forecasting National Ensemble Reported IEM MIT ISOLAT CovidComplete Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UCSD NEU. BPagano JHU APL Masaryk UMass MB. 15,000. 15,000. MIT ORC Microsoft PSI UM. New Weekly Deaths Columbia MIT Cassandra QJHong USC. DDS MIT LCP ESG. 10,000. 10,000. 5,000. 5,000. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals 0. 0. Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. 900,000. 900,000. Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP CovidComplete Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UCSD NEU. BPagano JHU APL PSI UMass MB. MIT ORC Microsoft QJHong UM. Columbia MIT Cassandra ESG USC. Total Deaths 800,000. 800,000. 700,000. 700,000. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10.

2 Alabama Ensemble Reported DDS MIT Cassandra CovidComplete Individual models AIpert IEM MIT LCP UCSD NEU. BPagano JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. MIT ORC JHU APL Masaryk UM. New Weekly Deaths 350. 350. Columbia Microsoft ESG USC. 250. 250. 150. 150. 0 50. 0 50. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP UMass MB. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UM. BPagano JHU APL ESG USC. MIT ORC Microsoft CovidComplete Columbia MIT Cassandra UCSD NEU. 17,000. 17,000. Total Deaths 15,000. 15,000. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10.

3 Update: 2021 12 20 ncov/covid data/forecasting Alaska Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP CovidComplete Individual models AIpert IEM MOBS UCSD NEU. BPagano JHU CSSE Masaryk UMass MB. MIT ORC JHU APL PSI UM. New Weekly Deaths 80. 80. Columbia Microsoft ESG USC. 60. 60. 40. 40. 20. 20. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals 0. 0. Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. 1,100. 1,100. Ensemble Reported DDS MOBS UMass MB. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE PSI UM. BPagano JHU APL ESG USC. MIT ORC Microsoft CovidComplete Columbia MIT LCP UCSD NEU. Total Deaths 900. 900. 800. 800. 700. 700. 600. 600. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10.

4 American Samoa Ensemble Reported Individual models JHU CSSE. JHU APL. UMass MB. New Weekly Deaths USC. 0. 0. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. Ensemble Reported Individual models JHU CSSE. 2. 2. UMass MB. USC. Total Deaths 1. 1. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals 0. 0. Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. Update: 2021 12 20 ncov/covid data/forecasting Arizona Ensemble Reported IEM MIT ISOLAT UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL Masaryk UM. MIT ORC Microsoft PSI USC.

5 New Weekly Deaths Columbia MIT Cassandra ESG. DDS MIT LCP CovidComplete 800. 800. 600. 600. 400. 400. 200. 200. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals 0. 0. Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. 28,000. 28,000. Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL PSI UM. MIT ORC Microsoft ESG USC. Columbia MIT Cassandra CovidComplete Total Deaths 24,000. 24,000. 20,000. 20,000. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. Arkansas Ensemble Reported IEM MIT ISOLAT UCSD NEU.

6 Individual models 250. 250. AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL Masaryk UM. MIT ORC Microsoft PSI USC. New Weekly Deaths Columbia MIT Cassandra ESG. DDS MIT LCP CovidComplete 200. 200. 150. 150. 100. 100. 50. 50. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals 0. 0. Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP UCSD NEU. Individual models 10,000. 10,000. AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL PSI UM. MIT ORC Microsoft ESG USC. Columbia MIT Cassandra CovidComplete Total Deaths 9,000. 9,000. 8,000. 8,000. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10.

7 Update: 2021 12 20 ncov/covid data/forecasting California Ensemble Reported IEM MOBS UMass MB. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE Masaryk UM. BPagano JHU APL PSI USC. MIT ORC Microsoft ESG. New Weekly Deaths 1,000. 1,000. Columbia MIT Cassandra CovidComplete DDS MIT LCP UCSD NEU. 600. 600. 200. 200. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals 0. 0. Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. 85,000. 85,000. Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL PSI UM. MIT ORC Microsoft ESG USC. Columbia MIT Cassandra CovidComplete Total Deaths 75,000. 75,000. 65,000. 65,000. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10.

8 Colorado Ensemble Reported IEM MIT ISOLAT UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL Masaryk UM. MIT ORC Microsoft PSI USC. New Weekly Deaths 100 200 300 400 500. 100 200 300 400 500. Columbia MIT Cassandra ESG. DDS MIT LCP CovidComplete Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals 0. 0. Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL PSI UM. 11,000. 11,000. MIT ORC Microsoft ESG USC. Columbia MIT Cassandra CovidComplete Total Deaths 9,000. 9,000. 7,000. 7,000. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10.

9 Update: 2021 12 20 ncov/covid data/forecasting Connecticut**. Ensemble Reported IEM MIT ISOLAT UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL Masaryk UM. MIT ORC Microsoft PSI USC. New Weekly Deaths Columbia MIT Cassandra ESG. 350. 350. DDS MIT LCP CovidComplete 250. 250. 150. 150. 0 50. 0 50. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. 10,500. 10,500. Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL PSI UM. MIT ORC Microsoft ESG USC. Columbia MIT Cassandra CovidComplete Total Deaths 9,500. 9,500. 8,500. 8,500. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10.

10 Delaware**. Ensemble Reported IEM MIT ISOLAT UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. BPagano JHU APL Masaryk UM. MIT ORC Microsoft PSI USC. 100. 100. New Weekly Deaths Columbia MIT Cassandra ESG. DDS MIT LCP CovidComplete 80. 80. 60. 60. 40. 40. 20. 20. Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals 0. 0. Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10. Ensemble Reported DDS MIT LCP UCSD NEU. Individual models AIpert JHU CSSE MOBS UMass MB. 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600. 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600. BPagano JHU APL PSI UM. MIT ORC Microsoft ESG USC. Columbia MIT Cassandra CovidComplete Total Deaths Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10 Oct 18 Nov 01 Nov 15 Nov 29 Dec 13 Dec 27 Jan 10.