1 Project Risk Management Guide Part I: Guidance for WSDOT Projects Part II: Guidelines for CRA-CEVP Workshops November 2014. Engineering and Regional Operations Development Division, Design Office, SAEO. Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Information Materials can be provided in alternative formats by calling the ADA Compliance Manager at 360-705-7097. Persons who are deaf or hard of hearing may contact that number via the Washington Relay Service at 7-1-1. Title VI Notice to Public It is Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) policy to ensure no person shall, on the grounds of race, color, national origin, or sex, as provided by Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be otherwise discriminated against under any of its federally funded programs and activities.
2 Any person who believes his/her Title VI protection has been violated may file a complaint with WSDOT's Office of Equal Opportunity (OEO). For Title VI complaint forms and advice, please contact OEO's Title VI Coordinator at 360-705-7082 or 509-324-6018. To get the latest information on individual WSDOT publications, sign up for email updates at: Foreword Inaccurate cost estimating has vexed transportation projects for years. A noted study by B. Flyvbjerg on the results of transportation Project estimating found that, for the past 70 years, the cost of transportation projects has been consistently underestimated in many parts of the world, including the The future is uncertain, but it is certain that these questions will be asked about our projects: (1) How much will it cost?
3 (2) How long will it take? And, of course, the obvious follow-up question: Why? (Why that much and why that long?). What gets us in These questions are posed in the future tense, and we are being asked trouble is not what to predict an uncertain future. Because the future is uncertain, the we don't know. It's fundamental answer to these questions is that an estimate is more what we know for accurately expressed, not as a single number, but as a range. To sure that just ain't so. determine an accurate estimate range for both cost and schedule, risk and uncertainty must be quantified. ~ Mark Twain Estimates have two components: the base cost component and the risk (or uncertainty). component. Base cost is defined as the likely cost of the planned Project if no significant problems occur.
4 Once the base cost is established, a list of uncertainties is created of both opportunities and threats, called a risk register. The risk assessment replaces general and vaguely defined contingency with explicitly defined risk events and with the probability of occurrence and the consequences of each potential risk event. Scope control is necessary for Project Management and estimating. Cost estimates are reviewed and validated, and a base cost for the Project is determined. Project risk Management is a scalable activity and should be commensurate with the size and complexity of the Project under consideration. Simpler projects may utilize simple qualitative analyses, as found in WSDOT's Project Management Online Guide in the Risk Management plan spreadsheet.
5 Larger, more complex projects may wish to use more robust analysis techniques via Monte Carlo simulation models. The guidance in this manual has been developed by the Strategic Analysis and Estimating Office (SAEO) in alignment with the goals of the Statewide Program Management Group. This document would not have been possible without the contributions of dozens of key WSDOT. people who participated in the development and review of these guidelines. Credit is also due to many of the consultant partners, academics, and others who continually advance the cause of Project risk Management in the transportation industry. WSDOT Project Risk Management Guide Page i November 2014. Foreword Page ii WSDOT Project Risk Management Guide November 2014.
6 Comment Form NOTE: This document is a working draft. Your feedback and input are greatly appreciated. From: Date: Phone: To: WSDOT Headquarters Development Division, Design Office Attn: Strategic Analysis and Estimating Office Mailstop 47330 PO Box 47330. Olympia, WA 98501-7330. Subject: Project Risk Management Comments Comment (marked copies attached): Preserve this original for future use. Submit copies only. WSDOT Project Risk Management Guide Page iii November 2014. Comment Form Page iv WSDOT Project Risk Management Guide November 2014. Contents Foreword .. i Comment Form .. iii List of Exhibits ..viii Part I: Guidance for WSDOT Projects Chapter 1 Project Risk Management Planning .. 1-1. 1-1 Introduction to Project Risk Management .
7 1-1. 1-2 Value of Risk Management .. 1-2. 1-3 Project Risk Management Process .. 1-3. 1-4 Smart Effort = Less Risk .. 1-4. 1-5 Statement of Policy .. 1-6. 1-6 Project Risk Management Planning .. 1-6. 1-7 How to plan for Project Risk Management .. 1-10. Chapter 2 Risk Identification .. 2-1. 2-1 Risk Identification Throughout Project Development .. 2-1. 2-2 Risk Identification: Inputs, Tools and Techniques, Outputs .. 2-1. 2-3 Identifying Risk Events .. 2-3. Chapter 3 Qualitative Risk Analysis .. 3-1. 3-1 General .. 3-1. 3-2 How to Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis .. 3-2. Chapter 4 Quantitative Risk Analysis .. 4-1. 4-1 General .. 4-1. 4-2 How to Perform Quantitative Risk 4-3. Chapter 5 Risk Response .. 5-1. 5-1 Taking Action .. 5-1. 5-2 Risk Response Tools and Techniques.
8 5-4. Chapter 6 Risk Monitoring and Control .. 6-1. 6-1 General .. 6-1. Chapter 7 Project Risk Management plan Template .. 7-1. 7-1 General .. 7-1. 7-2 Project Risk Management plan .. 7-1. 7-3 Project Risk Management Process: Example Project .. 7-3. 7-4 Second Pillar of Risk Management (Respond, Monitor, and Control) .. 7-7. WSDOT Project Risk Management Guide Page v November 2014. Contents Part II: Guidelines for CRA-CEVP Workshops Section A CRA-CEVP Project Risk Assessment ..A-1. A-1 Purpose .. A-1. Helpful Hints for Project A-2. Statement of A-3. CRA and CEVP Seven-Step A-4. Workshop Teams and Participation .. A-4. Preparing Workshop A-7. Preparing the Project Team Overview for Bias Reduction .. A-7. Preparing the Project Team A-8.
9 Preparing Subject-Matter Experts Procedures .. A-8. Conflict Resolution .. A-10. A-2 Risk Assessment Workshop .. A-11. A-3 Risk Assessment Activities .. A-11. Elicitation (Characterizing Risk and Uncertainty) .. A-11. Cautionary Notes Regarding Workshop A-13. Report Preparation .. A-14. CEVP Results and Capital Budget Development Data Needs .. A-17. Management A-17. A-4 QA/QC: All Are Accountable for Quality .. A-18. Preparation .. A-18. During and After the Workshop .. A-19. A-5 Risk Response Taking A-19. Section B Manager & Team Typical Duties .. B-1. B-1 Description of B-2 Project Team Status Prior to CRA/CEVP B-3 Project Team Responsibilities and Requirements ..B-3. Items Required from the Project Team Prior to the Workshop ..B-4.
10 Section C Risk Lead Duties .. C-1. C-1 Description of C-1. Risk Lead Duties .. C-1. Section D Cost Lead Duties .. D-1. D-1 Description of D-1. Cost Lead Duties .. D-1. D-2 Base Cost Assessment .. D-3. Confirm that Cost Matches Scope .. D-4. Confirm Unit Prices Are Valid .. D-4. Identify Internal and External Contingency .. D-4. Split Estimate to Match Flowchart .. D-4. Determine Risk Costs in Collaboration with the Risk Team .. D-4. Page vi WSDOT Project Risk Management Guide November 2014. Contents Section E Subject Matter Experts E-1. E-1 Description of E-1. Special Notes for Subject Matter E-1. Section F CRA Coordinator Duties (HQ/Region).. F-1. F-1 Description of F-1. CRA Coordinator Duties .. F-1. F-2 CRA Coordinator How-To .. F-2.