Example: confidence

Reading 15a: Conjugate Priors: Beta and Normal

We complete the square in the exponent (θ − 4) 2 (3 − θ) 2. 5(θ − 4) 2 + 8(3 − θ) 2. − − = −. 16 10 80 13θ. 2 − 88θ + 152 = −. 80. θ 2. − 88 θ + 152 = −. 13 13. 80/13 (θ − 44/13) 2 + 152/13 − (44/13) 2 = − . 80/13. Therefore the posterior is. − (θ−44/13) 2 +152/13−(44/13) 2 −(θ−44/13)2 f(θ|x 1 ...

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Transcription of Reading 15a: Conjugate Priors: Beta and Normal

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