Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

1 Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. August 23, 2018. Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683. Joe Abbott 732-497-5306. Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333. Mali Quintana 480-664-1333. Please visit our sites at thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Fundamental Stock Market indicator 1-2. Global Growth Barometer 3. Economic Surprise Index 4. Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5. Bull/Bear Ratio Over 6. Bull/Bear Ratio Under 7. Bull/Bear Ratio Under & Over 8. AAII Sentiment 9. Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10. S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11. Volatility 12. Volume 13. Dow Theory 14. S&P 500 Moving Averages 15-16. S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 17. S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18.

2 S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019. August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. Fundamental Stock Market indicator Figure 1. 3000 160. YRI FUNDAMENTAL Stock Market indicator and S&P 500 INDEX. 2800 8/11. 2600 YRI Fundamental Stock 140. Market indicator *. 2400. 2200 S&P 500 Index 120. 2000. 1800 100. 1600. 1400 80. 1200. 1000 60. 800. 600 40. 400. 200 20. 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19. * Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

3 Figure 2. 70 250. YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 240. 8/18. 230. Boom-Bust Barometer* 8/11 220. 60 210. Consumer Comfort Index 200. 190. 180. 170. 50. 160. 150. 140. 130. 40. 120. 110. 100. 90. 30 80. 70. 60. 50. 20 40. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019. * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. Page 1 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. Fundamental Stock Market indicator Figure 3. 850 3000. S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES. 8/23. 2800. 750 S&P 500 Index 2600. CRB Raw Industrials 2400.

4 Spot Index 650 2200. 2000. 550 1800. 8/22 1600. 450 1400. 1200. 350 1000. 800. 250 600. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 4. 100 3000. S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS. 8/23. 2800. S&P 500 Index 200 2600. 8/18. Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, sa, four-week moving average, 2400. inverted scale). 300 2200. 2000. 400 1800. 1600. 500 1400. 1200. 600 1000. 800. 700 600. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019. Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor's. Page 2 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. Global Growth Barometer Figure 5.

5 3050 3050. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500. 8/23. 2650 2650. YRI Global Growth Barometer* ( ). S&P 500 Index ( ). 2250 2250. 1850 1850. 1450 1450. 1050 8/22 1050. 650 650. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019. * Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 6. 200 3000. US Stock PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE. 8/23. 2800. 175. 2600. 2400. 150. 2200. 125 2000. 1800. 100 1600. 1400. 75 S&P 500 Index 8/22. 1200. Brent Crude Oil Price*. (dollars per barrel) 1000. 50. 800. 25 600. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019. * Nearby futures price.

6 Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor's Corporation. Page 3 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. Economic Surprise Index Figure 7. 600 150. S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX. (percent). 400 100. 200 50. 0 0. 8/23. -200 -50. S&P 500 minus its -400 200 day-moving average -100. Economic Surprise Index -600 -150. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019. Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup. Figure 8. 19 150. S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX. (percent). 100. 17. 8/16. 50. 15. 0. 8/23. -50. 13. -100. S&P 500 Forward P/E*. 11. Economic Surprise Index -150. 9 -200. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019.

7 * Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup. Page 4 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. Investors Intelligence Sentiment Figure 9. 6 6. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS. 5 5. Ratio Ratio Bull/Bear Aug 7 Ratio* Aug 14 4 Aug 21 4. 8/21. 3 3. 2 2. 1 1. 0 0. 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20. 80 80. Percentage Bulls Bears Aug 7 70 Bulls Aug 14 70. Bears Aug 21 60 60. 8/21. 50 50. 40 40. 30 30. 20 20. 10 10. 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.

8 50 50. 45 Percentage Correction 45. Correction Aug 7 40 Aug 14 40. Aug 21 35 35. 30 30. 25 25. 8/21. 20 20. 15 15. 10 10. 5 5. 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20. Source: Investors Intelligence. Page 5 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. Bull/Bear Ratio Over Figure 10. 3400 3400. 3000 3000. S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 8/23. 2600 2600. OR MORE*. 2200 (ratio scale) 2200. 1800 1800. 1400 1400. 1000 1000. 600 600. 200 200. 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20. * Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.

9 Figure 11. 31600 31600. 26600 DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 8/23 26600. 21600 OR MORE* 21600. (ratio scale). 16600 16600. 11600 11600. 6600 6600. 1600 1600. 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20. * Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Page 6 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. Bull/Bear Ratio Under Figure 12. 3400 3400. 3000 3000. 8/23. 2600 S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO 2600. OF OR LESS*. 2200 (ratio scale) 2200. 1800 1800. 1400 1400. 1000 1000. 600 600. 200 200. 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.

10 * Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence. Figure 13. 31600 31600. 26600 8/23 26600. DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO. 21600 OF OR LESS* 21600. (ratio scale). 16600 16600. 11600 11600. 6600 6600. 1600 1600. 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20. * Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence. Page 7 / August 23, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators : Fundamental, Sentiment , & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. Bull/Bear Ratio Under & Over Figure 14. 40 40. S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA. vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF OR MORE*. 20 20. 8/23. 0 0. -20 -20. -40 -40.