TANZANIA MAINLAND POVERTY ASSESSMENT - …

1 TANZANIA MAINLAND POVERTY Disclaimer:This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Di-rectors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or accep-tance of such Statement:The material in this publication is copyrighted.

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3 IxAcronyms and Abbreviations ..xiExecutive Summary ..xiiiIntroduction ..xxviiCHAPTER 1 POVERTY and Inequality Trends ..1I. Decline in POVERTY and Extreme POVERTY Since 2007 ..1II. Improvements in Households Living Conditions and Human Development Outcomes ..5 III. Moderate and Fairly Stable Inequality ..12 CHAPTER 2 POVERTY Profile ..19I. Still Too Many Poor and Too Many People Clustered Around the POVERTY Line ..19II. The Characteristics of the Poor ..21 III. Migration and POVERTY ..27 CHAPTER 3 Economic Growth and POVERTY ..35I. A Brief Review of Recent Economic Growth ..35II. The Growth Elasticity of POVERTY ..39 III. The Distributional Pattern of Growth ..40 CHAPTER 4 Uneven Geographic Decline in POVERTY .

4 45I. POVERTY Trends by Geographic Domains ..45II. Growth and Distributional Changes by Geographic Domains ..48 CHAPTER 5 Increasing Inequality between Geographic Domains ..53I. The Sources of Urban-Rural Inequality ..54II. Determinants of Inequality between Dar es Salaam and the Other Regions ..57ivTanzania MAINLAND POVERTY AssessmentCHAPTER 6 Inequality of Opportunity ..61I. Inequality of Opportunity in Household Consumption ..62II. Inequality of Opportunity in Household Income ..67 CHAPTER 7 Demographic Pressures Pose a Challenge to POVERTY Reduction ..73I. Macro Perspective ..73II. The Demographic Transition in TANZANIA ..75 III. Patterns and Determinants of Fertility in TANZANIA ..77IV. Main Findings and Directions for Further Analysis.

5 79 References ..81 Appendices ..87 Appendix : POVERTY Estimation in the HBS 2007 and 2011/12 ..88 Appendix : Prediction Methods to Establish Comparability between the 2007 and 2011/12 Data ..97 Appendix : Welfare Dynamics ..98 Appendix : Static Decomposition of Inequality ..102 Appendix : Characteristics of the Poor and POVERTY Correlates ..103 Appendix : Multivariate Regression ..106 Appendix : Migration ..110 Appendix 3: Comparison of POVERTY Trends Using NPS and HBS Data ..118 Appendix 4: The Unconditional Quantile Regression Model & Analysis of Spatial Inequality ..119 Appendix 5: Inequality of Opportunity: The Parametric Decomposition ..135 Appendix 6: Demography ..146 LIST OF TABLEST able Adjusted POVERTY Rates for 2007 Using Prediction Methods.

6 5 Table Changes in Economic Status across Quartiles, Wave 1 (2008/09) to Wave 3 (2012/13) ..12 Table Decomposition of Inequality by Household Attributes ..16 Table POVERTY Headcount for Alternative POVERTY Lines, 2011/12 ..20 Table Households Demographic Structure ..23 Table Migration by Gender and Period ..27 Table Characteristics of the Migrants ..28 Table Reasons for Migrating ..29 Table Relationship to the Head of the Household ..29 Table Differences between Migrants and Nonmigrants before and after Migration ..30 Table Asset Differences between Migrants and Nonmigrants before and after Migration ..30vContentsTable Migrant Occupations ..31 Table Amount of Domestic Remittances Received by Households.

7 32 Table Real GDP Growth in TANZANIA by Sector, 2008 2013 ..37 Table Adjusted POVERTY Rates for 2007 by Geographic Domain Using Prediction Methods ..48 Table Endowments and Returns Effects of Some Specific Attributes ..52 LIST OF FIGURESF igure POVERTY and Extreme POVERTY Incidence..xivFigure Share of Households with Improved Housing Conditions ..xivFigure Net Education Enrolment Rates ..xvFigure Annual Growth in GDP and GDP per Capita ..xvFigure Income Inequity in TANZANIA by Gini Coefficient, 2001 2011/12 ..xviiFigure Gini Coefficients in Sub-Saharan Africa ..xviiFigure Distribution of the Poor Population by Geographic Area ..xviiiFigure POVERTY Headcount by Geographic Domain.

8 XxFigure Sources of Urban-Rural Inequality: The Contribution of the Differences in Endowments and Returns to the Consumption Gap ..xxiFigure Contribution of Circumstance Variables to Consumption Inequality ..xxiiFigure POVERTY Reduction by Number of Children (0 14 years), 2007 2011/12 ..xxiiFigure POVERTY and Extreme POVERTY Trends in TANZANIA MAINLAND , 2007 2011/12 ..2 Figure Trends in Depth and Severity of POVERTY in TANZANIA MAINLAND , 2007 2011/12 ..3 Figure Adjusted POVERTY Rates for 2007 Using Prediction Methods ..4 Figure Trends in Dwelling Materials, 2007 2011/12 ..6 Figure Trends in Assets Ownership ..7 Figure Trends in Agricultural Land Ownership ..7 Figure Gross Enrollment Rates in TANZANIA and International Comparison.

9 8 Figure Primary and Secondary Net Enrollment Rates, 2001 2011/12 ..8 Figure Share of Children Enrolled in Primary School, by Age ..9 Figure Gross Enrollments by Gender and Gender Parity Index, 2011/12 ..9 Figure Educational Attainment Is Improving Slowly ..10 Figure Continued Reductions in Child Mortality, 2004/05 2010 ..10 Figure Recent Improvements in Maternal Mortality, 2004/05 2010 ..10 Figure Uneven Progress in Child Nutrition, 2004/05 2010/11 ..11 Figure Lorenz Curve and Inequality Coefficients ..14 Figure Mean Consumption by Percentile ..20viTanzania MAINLAND POVERTY AssessmentFigure POVERTY Estimates in TANZANIA and Other Developing Countries by Percentage ..21 Figure Proportion of the Poor by Geographic Domain.

10 22 Figure POVERTY by Demographic Structure ..24 Figure POVERTY Goes in Hand with Large Family Sizes ..24 Figure POVERTY Reduction by Number of Children (0 14 years), 2007 2011/12 ..24 Figure POVERTY by Education Level of the Household Head ..25 Figure POVERTY by Sector of Work of Head and Sources of Income of the Household ..26 Figure POVERTY by Migration Status ..26 Figure Access to Public Infrastructure ..26 Figure Major Sources of Remittances Received by Households ..32 Figure Channel and Primary Use of Remittances ..33 Figure Tanzanian GDP Growth Rate ..36 Figure Comparison of Growth Rates across Countries ..36 Figure Sectoral Real Growth Rates in TANZANIA ..36 Figure Sectoral Composition of Growth in TANZANIA .