THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 – …

1 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYJ anuary 2020 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 2024 /25 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY iNDPIII 2020/21 2024 /25 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITYJ anuary 2020 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 2024 /25 VISION A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years GOAL To Increase Average Household Incomes and Improve the Quality of Life of Ugandans THEME Sustainable Industrialization for inclusive growth, employment and sustainable wealth creation THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 2024 /25iiii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .. VI FOREWORD .. XIV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .. XVI PART I: BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .. 1 CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND .. 1 Introduction .. 1 Achievements, Challenges and Lessons learnt from NDPI and NDPII.

2 2 How NDPIII is different from NDPI and NDPII .. 11 Approach and formulation process of the NDPIII .. 13 Structure of the Plan .. 13 CHAPTER 2: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .. 14 Introduction .. 14 Key DEVELOPMENT Opportunities .. 15 Threats .. 18 Regional and International DEVELOPMENT Obligations .. 21 CHAPTER 3: NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK .. 23 Macroeconomic 23 Economic Growth .. 25 Fiscal Strategy .. 27 Monetary Sector .. 30 Financial Sector DEVELOPMENT .. 32 External Sector Developments .. 32 PART II: STRATEGIC FOCUS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS AND 35 CHAPTER 4: STRATEGIC DIRECTION .. 35 Goal .. 35 DEVELOPMENT Objectives .. 35 Theory of change .. 36 Key DEVELOPMENT Results .. 36 DEVELOPMENT 37 DEVELOPMENT 39 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Programs .. 46 NDPIII Core Projects.

3 47 PART III: DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES .. 49 CHAPTER 5: AGRO-INDUSTRIALIZATION .. 49 Introduction .. 49 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY iiiNDPIII 2020/21 2024 /25ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .. VI FOREWORD .. XIV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .. XVI PART I: BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .. 1 CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND .. 1 Introduction .. 1 Achievements, Challenges and Lessons learnt from NDPI and NDPII .. 2 How NDPIII is different from NDPI and NDPII .. 11 Approach and formulation process of the NDPIII .. 13 Structure of the Plan .. 13 CHAPTER 2: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT .. 14 Introduction .. 14 Key DEVELOPMENT Opportunities .. 15 Threats .. 18 Regional and International DEVELOPMENT Obligations .. 21 CHAPTER 3: NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK .. 23 Macroeconomic 23 Economic Growth .. 25 Fiscal Strategy.

4 27 Monetary Sector .. 30 Financial Sector DEVELOPMENT .. 32 External Sector Developments .. 32 PART II: STRATEGIC FOCUS, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS AND 35 CHAPTER 4: STRATEGIC DIRECTION .. 35 Goal .. 35 DEVELOPMENT Objectives .. 35 Theory of change .. 36 Key DEVELOPMENT Results .. 36 DEVELOPMENT 37 DEVELOPMENT 39 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Programs .. 46 NDPIII Core Projects .. 47 PART III: DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES .. 49 CHAPTER 5: AGRO-INDUSTRIALIZATION .. 49 Introduction .. 49 iii Situation Analysis .. 50 Objectives .. 56 CHAPTER 6: MINERAL DEVELOPMENT .. 66 Introduction .. 66 Situation Analysis .. 66 Objectives .. 69 CHAPTER 7: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF PETROLEUM RESOURCES .. 76 Introduction .. 76 Situation 77 Objectives .. 78 CHAPTER 8: TOURISM DEVELOPMENT .. 83 Introduction .. 83 Situation Analysis.

5 84 Objectives .. 89 CHAPTER 9: CLIMATE CHANGE, NATURAL RESOURCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND WATER MANAGEMENT .. 94 Introduction .. 94 Situation Analysis .. 95 Objectives .. 98 CHAPTER 10: PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT .. 106 Introduction .. 106 Situation Analysis .. 106 Objectives .. 109 CHAPTER 11: MANUFACTURING .. 112 Introduction .. 112 Situational analysis .. 113 Objectives .. 116 CHAPTER 12: INTEGRATED TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE AND 119 Introduction .. 119 Situation Analysis .. 120 Objectives .. 129 CHAPTER 13: ENERGY DEVELOPMENT .. 134 Introduction .. 134 Analysis .. 135 Objectives .. 138 CHAPTER 14: DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION .. 142 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 2024 /25iviv .. 142 Situation Analysis .. 142 Objectives .. 145 CHAPTER 15: SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION AND HOUSING .. 149 Introduction.

6 149 Situation Analysis .. 150 Objectives .. 151 CHAPTER 16: HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT .. 155 Introduction .. 155 Situation Analysis .. 156 Objectives .. 159 CHAPTER 17: INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSFER .. 164 Introduction .. 164 Analysis .. 165 Objectives .. 166 Interventions .. 166 Implementation Reforms .. 168 CHAPTER 18: COMMUNITY MOBILIZATION AND MINDSET CHANGE .. 170 Introduction .. 170 Situation Analysis .. 171 Objectives .. 173 CHAPTER 19: GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY PROGRAMME .. 175 Introduction .. 175 Situation Analysis .. 176 Objectives .. 179 CHAPTER 20: PUBLIC SECTOR TRANSFORMATION .. 182 .. 182 Situation Analysis .. 183 Objectives .. 186 CHAPTER 21: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT .. 189 Introduction .. 189 Situation Analysis .. 190 Objectives .. 191 CHAPTER 22: DEVELOPMENT PLAN IMPLEMENTATION.

7 194 Introduction .. 194 Situation 194 .. 198 Interventions .. 198 NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY vNDPIII 2020/21 2024 /25iv .. 142 Situation Analysis .. 142 Objectives .. 145 CHAPTER 15: SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION AND HOUSING .. 149 Introduction .. 149 Situation Analysis .. 150 Objectives .. 151 CHAPTER 16: HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT .. 155 Introduction .. 155 Situation Analysis .. 156 Objectives .. 159 CHAPTER 17: INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSFER .. 164 Introduction .. 164 Analysis .. 165 Objectives .. 166 Interventions .. 166 Implementation Reforms .. 168 CHAPTER 18: COMMUNITY MOBILIZATION AND MINDSET CHANGE .. 170 Introduction .. 170 Situation Analysis .. 171 Objectives .. 173 CHAPTER 19: GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY PROGRAMME .. 175 Introduction .. 175 Situation Analysis .. 176 Objectives.

8 179 CHAPTER 20: PUBLIC SECTOR TRANSFORMATION .. 182 .. 182 Situation Analysis .. 183 Objectives .. 186 CHAPTER 21: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT .. 189 Introduction .. 189 Situation Analysis .. 190 Objectives .. 191 CHAPTER 22: DEVELOPMENT PLAN IMPLEMENTATION .. 194 Introduction .. 194 Situation 194 .. 198 Interventions .. 198 v Implementation Reforms .. 200 PART IV: COSTING AND FINANCING, RISK MANAGEMENT, AND MONITORING AND EVALUATION .. 201 CHAPTER 23: COSTING AND FINANCING OF NDPIII PROGRAMS .. 201 The Overall Cost of the Plan .. 201 Public Financing Sources .. 201 Public Debt Acquisition .. 204 Private Financing Sources .. 204 CHAPTER 24: RISK MANAGEMENT .. 207 Introduction .. 207 General Interventions for Risk Management .. 214 CHAPTER 25: MONITORING AND EVALUATION .. 215 Introduction .. 215 The NDPIII M&E Reforms.

9 215 Roles and Responsibilities of Key Actors .. 217 Performance Reporting and Dissemination of Results .. 218 M&E Processes .. 220 Capacity Building .. 221 NDPIII Results Framework .. 221 ANNEXES .. 223 Annex 1: Status of implementation of NDPII Core Projects FY2018/19 .. 223 Annex 2: Prioritized Minerals for NDP III and their uses .. 226 Annex 3: Mapping of the global, continental and regional DEVELOPMENT frameworks.. 230 THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (NDPIII) 2020/21 2024 /25vivi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACD Anti-Corruption Division AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AfDB African DEVELOPMENT Bank AFROSAL African Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions AGI Agro-Industrialization ANC Antenatal Care ASSIP Accountability Sector Strategic Investment Plan BCCU Bugisu Coffee Cooperative Union BTVET Business, Technical and Vocational Training BOU Bank of Uganda CCD Climate Change Department CDOs Community DEVELOPMENT Officers CMA Capital Markets Authority CME Community Mobilization and Empowerment CNDPF Comprehensive NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Planning Framework COMESA Common Market for East and Southern Africa CNOOC China NATIONAL Oil Corporation CSOs Civil Society Organisations CTC Cut.

10 Tear and Curl DDA Dairy DEVELOPMENT Authority DDEG Discretionary DEVELOPMENT Equalisation Grant DFS Digital Financial Services DIT Department of Industrial Training DLG District Local Government DPP Directorate of Public Prosecution DPs DEVELOPMENT Parnters NATIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY viiNDPIII 2020/21 2024 /25vi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACD Anti-Corruption Division AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AfDB African DEVELOPMENT Bank AFROSAL African Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions AGI Agro-Industrialization ANC Antenatal Care ASSIP Accountability Sector Strategic Investment Plan BCCU Bugisu Coffee Cooperative Union BTVET Business, Technical and Vocational Training BOU Bank of Uganda CCD Climate Change Department CDOs Community DEVELOPMENT Officers CMA Capital Markets Authority CME Community Mobilization and Empowerment CNDPF Comprehensive NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Planning Framework COMESA Common Market for East and Southern Africa CNOOC China NATIONAL Oil Corporation CSOs Civil Society Organisations CTC Cut, Tear and Curl DDA Dairy DEVELOPMENT Authority DDEG Discretionary DEVELOPMENT Equalisation Grant DFS Digital Financial Services DIT Department of Industrial Training DLG District Local Government DPP Directorate of Public Prosecution DPs DEVELOPMENT Parnters vii DRMS Domestic Revenue Mobilisation Strategy EAC East African Community EBA European Union Everything But Arms ECCE Early Childhood Care and Education ECD Early Childhood DEVELOPMENT ESIAs Environmental.