Weather Forecasting Models, Methods and Applications

1 International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT). ISSN: 2278-0181. Vol. 2 Issue 12, December - 2013. Weather Forecasting Models, Methods and Applications AA. Iseh. A. J. * Woma. T. ,2. 1. 1. Department of Pure & Applied Physics, Federal University Wukari, Taraba State. P. M. B. 1020 Wukari, Taraba State. 2. Department of Pure & Applied Physics, Federal University Wukari, Taraba State. P. M. B. 1020 Wukari, Taraba State. ABSTRACT Weather data, Forecasting Methods and Weather Forecasting modelling is a Applications . computer program that provides meteorological information for future INTRODUCTION.

2 Times at given locations. In modern Forecasting models, Numerical Weather prediction is mostly applied and this Modern society's ever-increasing demand means, a set of simplified equations used for more accurate Weather forecasts is to calculate changes in atmospheric evident to most people. The spectrum of conditions . The act of writing these needs for Weather predictions ranges from equations, imposing the boundary the general public's desire to know if for conditions and solving them using super instance, the weekend will permit an RT. computers, is known as numerical outing at the beach, or an organization's modelling.

3 An example of such equations rally, or an outdoor wedding reception. is the Hypsometric equation given as PI = Such diverse industries as airlines and fruit IJE. POexp gz/RT. Computerized numerical growers depend heavily on accurate models are designed for different intervals Weather forecasts to have an idea of what which are known as global models under their next schedule of flight would appear which we have long range forecast and to be or if the Weather will be suitable for medium range forecast, and regional harvesting. In addition, in developed models under which we have the short countries, the designs of buildings, and range forecast.

4 The Methods include many industrial facilities rely heavily on a persistence, climatologic, looking at the sound knowledge of the atmosphere. sky, use of barometer, nowcasting, use of Weather Forecasting can be defined as the Forecasting models, analogue and act of predicting future Weather conditions ensemble Forecasting . Forecasting could be or an attempt to indicate the Weather applied in air traffic, severe Weather alerts, conditions which are likely to occur. marine, agriculture, utility companies, private sector and military application. Weather Forecasting is the application of Weather Forecasting is a complex and Science and Technology to predict the challenging science that depends on the state of the atmosphere for a future time efficient interplay of Weather observation, and a given location.

5 Human beings have data analysis by meteorologist and attempted to predict the Weather computers, and rapid communication informally for millennia, and formally system. since at least the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting Key words: Weather , Weather qualitative data about the current state of prediction , forecast, Forecasting models, the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to IJERTV2IS120198 1945. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT). ISSN: 2278-0181. Vol. 2 Issue 12, December - 2013.

6 Project how the atmosphere will evolve HOW MODELS CREATE. within the next few hours. FORECASTS. Once, an all-human endeavour based mainly upon changes in barometric Data collection pressure, current Weather conditions and Since invention of the first Weather sky conditions, forecast models are now instruments in the seventeenth century used to determine future conditions. A Weather observation has undergone model, in this context, is a computer considerable refinement. Denser program that produces meteorological monitoring networks, more sophisticated information for future times at given instruments and communication systems, positions and altitudes.

7 The horizontal and better-trained Weather observers, have domain of a model is either global, produced an increasingly detailed, reliable covering the entire earth, or regional, and representative record of Weather and covering only part of the earth. Regional climate. In Weather Forecasting , data models also are known as limited area collection has been divided into two models. Human input is still required to categories namely: pick the best possible forecast model to i. Surface Weather observations base the forecast upon, which involves ii. Upper-air Weather observations.

8 Pattern recognition skills, knowledge of model performance and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the Surface Weather Observations atmosphere, error involved in measuring Surface Weather observations are the the initial conditions, an incomplete RT. fundamental data used for safety as well as understanding of atmospheric processes climatological reasons to forecast Weather mean that forecast become less accurate as and issue warnings worldwide. They can the difference in current time and the time IJE. be taken manually by a Weather observer, for which the forecast is being made by computer through observers to augment increases.

9 The otherwise automated Weather station. There are a variety of end users to Weather Referring to Lutgens and TarBuck (1989), forecasts. Weather warnings are important a vast network of Weather stations required forecasts because they are used to protect to produce a Weather chart will encompass life and property. Forecasts based on enough to be useful for short-range temperature and precipitation are forecasts. On a global scale, the World important to agriculture, and therefore to meteorological organization, which commodity traders within stock markets. consists of over 130 nations, is responsible Temperature forecasts are also used by for gathering the needed data and utility companies to estimate demand over producing some general prognostic charts.

10 Coming days. On an everyday basis people use Weather forecasts to determine what to Surface Weather observations of wear on a given day. Since in recent time atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind in Uyo Nigeria for example, outdoor speed and direction, humidity, activities are severely curtailed by heavy precipitations are made near the earth's rains, forecasts can be used to plan surface by trained observers or automatic activities around these events, and to plan Weather stations. The World ahead and survive them. meteorological Organization acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of those observations worldwide.