Transcription of Logistic Regression
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Chapter 12 Logistic Modeling Conditional ProbabilitiesSo far, we either looked at estimating the conditional expectations of continuousvariables (as in Regression ), or at estimating distributions. There are many situationswhere however we are interested in input-output relationships, as in Regression , butthe output variable is discrete rather than continuous. In particular there are manysituations where we have binary outcomes (it snows in Pittsburgh on a given day, orit doesn t; this squirrel carries plague, or it doesn t; this loan will be paid back, orit won t; this person will get heart disease in the next five years, or they won t). Inaddition to the binary outcome, we have some input variables, which may or maynot be continuous.
Using logistic regression to predict class probabilities is a modeling choice, just like it’s a modeling choice to predict quantitative variables with linear regression. 1Unless you’ve taken statistical mechanics, in which case you recognize that this is the Boltzmann distribution for a system with two states, which differ in energy by β 0 ...
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