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2016 State of the Industry - Boating Industry

State of the Industry 2016 * Vicky Yu, NMMA * Peter Houseworth, Info-Link * Noel Lais, Spader Business Management Our panelists today Available at digital-downloads 2016 Market Data Book The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING State of the Industry August 17, 2016 NMMA Industry UPDATE Vicky Yu Director, Statistics and Research 6 TTRRAADDIITTIIOONNAALL PPOOWWEERRBBOOAATT RREETTAAIILL UUNNIITT SSAALLEESS 100 200 300 400 500 600 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 Projected 1980s Recession Asian Financial Crisis Desert Storm Iraq War Great Recession 911 Source: NMMA, SSI 7 RREETTAAIILL UUNNIITT SSAALLEESS 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Outboard engines Boat trailers Outboard boats Personal watercraft Sterndrive boats Inboard skiboats Sailboats Jet boats Inboard cruisers 2015 2014 Source: NMMA, SSI 8 RETAIL SALES source: NMMA $0 $1 $2 $3 Outboard boats Outboard engines Boat trailers Inboard skiboats Inboard cruisers Sterndrive boats Personal watercraft Jet boats Sailboats Billions 2015 2014 9 TRADITIONAL POWERBOAT SALES $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Billions New Pre-owned Source: NMMA, Info-Link 10 BOAT INVENTORY Retailer Comfort Level New Pre-owned Too Low Too High Source: MRAA, Baird, NMMA 11 TRADITIONAL POWERBOAT WHOLESALE SHIPMENTS 0% 2% 4% 6

2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 REAL GDP Consumer Spending ... NMMA 2015 Recreational Boating Statistical Abstract NMMA Data Dashboard Vicky Yu - vyu@nmma.org - 312.946.6261 . ... 2016 State of the Industry.pptx Created Date:

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Transcription of 2016 State of the Industry - Boating Industry

1 State of the Industry 2016 * Vicky Yu, NMMA * Peter Houseworth, Info-Link * Noel Lais, Spader Business Management Our panelists today Available at digital-downloads 2016 Market Data Book The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING State of the Industry August 17, 2016 NMMA Industry UPDATE Vicky Yu Director, Statistics and Research 6 TTRRAADDIITTIIOONNAALL PPOOWWEERRBBOOAATT RREETTAAIILL UUNNIITT SSAALLEESS 100 200 300 400 500 600 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 Projected 1980s Recession Asian Financial Crisis Desert Storm Iraq War Great Recession 911 Source: NMMA, SSI 7 RREETTAAIILL UUNNIITT SSAALLEESS 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Outboard engines Boat trailers Outboard boats Personal watercraft Sterndrive boats Inboard skiboats Sailboats Jet boats Inboard cruisers 2015 2014 Source: NMMA, SSI 8 RETAIL SALES source: NMMA $0 $1 $2 $3 Outboard boats Outboard engines Boat trailers Inboard skiboats Inboard cruisers Sterndrive boats Personal watercraft Jet boats Sailboats Billions 2015 2014 9 TRADITIONAL POWERBOAT SALES $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Billions New Pre-owned Source: NMMA, Info-Link 10 BOAT INVENTORY Retailer Comfort Level New Pre-owned Too Low Too High Source: MRAA, Baird, NMMA 11 TRADITIONAL POWERBOAT WHOLESALE SHIPMENTS 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 R12M YOY Change Source: NMMA 12 PERCENT OF PEAK source.

2 NMMA, SSI 82% 70% 100% 70% 22% 79% 68% 86% 69% 41% 78% 35% High Unit Volume Low Unit Volume 13 CCOONNSSUUMMEERR CCOONNFFIIDDEENNCCEE IINNDDEEXX Jul-16, 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 '77 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 R12M AVERAGE 26 mo. 24 mo. 51 mo. 35 mo. 35 mo. 24 mo. 20 mo. 40 mo. 82 mo. 96 mo. 47 mo. 70 mo. Average duration from peak to valley: 33 mo. Average duration from valley to peak: 57 mo. Source: The Conference Board, NMMA 14 RV V. BOAT WHOLESALE SHIPMENTS 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% R12M YOY Change RVs Boats Source: NMMA, RVIA 15 UUNNIITT SSAALLEESS GGRROOWWTTHH IINN 22001166 Source: InfoLink, NMMA R12M YOY Change, through Q1 2016 16 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Florida Texas Michigan Minnesota New York North Carolina Wisconsin California Louisiana Alabama YOY Change Top 10 states 2015 NEW BOAT SPENDING source: NMMA State of the Industry 17 BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT 40 60 80 100 120 Index Retailer Sentiment Index Current Conditions Retailer Sentiment Index 3-5 year Outlook Consumer Confidence Index Source: Conference Board, MRAA, Baird, NMMA 18 CONTRIBUTION TO GDP 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 REAL GDP Consumer Spending Fixed Investment Government Net Exports Inventories Source.

3 BEA, NMMA 19 CCOONNSSUUMMEERR SSPPEENNDDIINNGG 2016 -Q2, -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2001-Q2 2001-Q4 2002-Q2 2002-Q4 2003-Q2 2003-Q4 2004-Q2 2004-Q4 2005-Q2 2005-Q4 2006-Q2 2006-Q4 2007-Q2 2007-Q4 2008-Q2 2008-Q4 2009-Q2 2009-Q4 2010-Q2 2010-Q4 2011-Q2 2011-Q4 2012-Q2 2012-Q4 2013-Q2 2013-Q4 2014 -Q2 2014 -Q4 2015-Q2 2015-Q4 2016 -Q2 ANNUALIZED RATE Source: BEA, NMMA 20 RREEAALL DDIISSPPOOSSAABBLLEE IINNCCOOMMEE 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Source: BEA, NMMA 21 INFLATION RATE -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Jan-01 Sep-01 May-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Source: , NMMA 22 WWHHOOLLEESSAALLEE FFOORREECCAASSTTSS ITR Economic Boat Building Production Forecast Source: ITR Economics, NMMA 23 CCIITTYY RREETTAAIILL GGAASS PPRRIICCEESS 8/8/ 2016 , $ $ $ $ $ $ Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Regular, Conventional Gas Weekly Price Series Max: July 14, 2008, $ Source: EIA, NMMA Data presented today can be found in the following publications.

4 NMMA 2015 recreational Boating Statistical Abstract NMMA Data Dashboard Vicky Yu - - The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING State of the Industry August 17, 2016 The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING A quick retrospecXve on 2015 The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING Results were fairly consistent across the country The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING Small boats conXnue to lag in growth All Powerboats (Excluding PWCs) The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING The lag conXnues even in growth categories Saltwater Fish Boats Freshwater Fish Boats The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING The lag conXnues even in growth categories Pontoon Boats The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING Results through June 2016 The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING Buyer age conXnues to be an issue 2005 2010 2015 Avg Age New Boat Buyers Freshwater and Saltwater Boats Freshwater Fish Jon / Skiff Saltwater Fish 2005 2010 2015 Avg Age New Boat Buyers General RecreaJon Boats Runabout Small Cruiser Cruiser / Yacht Pontoon 2005 2010 2015 Avg Age New Boat Buyers Specialty RecreaJon Boats Sail Ski PWC The Difference Between Guessing and KNOWING The fleet conXnues to age 2005 AGE 2010 AGE 2015 AGE Avg Age Freshwater and Saltwater Boats FW FISH SW FISH ALL 2005 AGE 2010

5 AGE 2015 AGE Avg Age General RecreaJon Boats RUNABOUT CRUISER YACHT PONTOON ALL 2005 AGE 2010 AGE 2015 AGE Avg Age Specialty Boats PWC SAIL SKI ALL 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Noel Lais, Vice President of Operations State of the Marine Industry Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. 109% Growth 105% Growth Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Used Boat Gross Margins Company Sales Volume Average Top 20% Most Profitable Under $6 million $6 to $10 million Over $10 million Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management.

6 All rights reserved. Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Top 20% Most Profitable Dealers Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Average (Gross Profit) per Employee Year Average per Employee Change 2013- 2014 $126,468 2014 -2015 $134,635 + 2015- 2016 $143,186 + Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Fulfilling. Success. 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management.

7 All rights reserved. Marine YTD Averages: Change from 2015 May 2015 to May 2016 June 2015 to June 2016 New Boat Sales +37% +16% Used Boat Sales +36% +14% Service Sales +17% +11% P&A Sales +23% +6% 2016 BMR, Inc. dba Spader Business Management. All rights reserved. Thank you Questions?


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