Methods for determining and processing probabilities

1 PUBLICATIEREEKSGEVAARLIJKE STOFFENM ethods for determiningand processing probabilities 4 Publication Series on Dangerous Substances 4 (PGS 4) Methods for determining and processing probabilitiesPrefaceStarting from June 1st 2004, the Advisory Council on Dangerous Substances (AdviesraadGevaarlijke Stoffen - AGS) was installed by the Cabinet. At the same time the Committee for thePrevention of Disasters (Commissie voor de Preventie van Rampen- CPR) was abolished. CPR issued several publications, the so-called CPR-guidelines (CPR-richtlijnen), that are often usedin environmental permits, based on the Environmental Protection Law, and in the fields of oflabour safety, transport safety and fire CPR-guidelines have been transformed into the Publication Series on Dangerous Substances(Publicatiereeks Gevaarlijke Stoffen PGS).

2 The aim of these publications is generally the same asthat of the CPR-guidelines. All CPR-guidelines have been reviewed, taking into account the follo-wing questions:1. Is there still a reason for existence for the guideline or can the guideline be abolished;2. Can the guideline be reintroduced without changes or does it need to be fourth publication in the Series on Dangerous Substances (PGS 4) is not different from theformer publication CPR 12E, second edition on behalf of my colleagues at the Ministries of Transport, Social Affairs and of the Interior,The State Secretary of Housing Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM).

3 Drs. van Geel[december] 2005 Methods for determining andprocessing probabilities Red Book CPR 12 EPrincipal Sch ller, Brinkman, Van Gestel, van Otterloo, 310, 6812 AR ARNHEMThe NetherlandsTel. +31 26 356 8526 Fax. +31 36 445 9035 This report was prepared under the supervision of the Committee for the Prevention ofDisasters and is published with the approval ofThe Director-General for Social Affairs and EmploymentThe Director-General for Environmental ProtectionThe Director-General for Public Order and SecurityThe Director-General for TransportThe Hague, 1997 The Director-General for Social Affairs and EmploymentCommittee for Prevention of DisastersSecond edition 1997 FOREWORDThe report CPR-12E Methods for determining and processing probabilities was firstissued in 1988.

4 In the following years the Red Book has proven to be a useful tool inrisk analysis. However it became apparent certain subjects should be added or should becovered more elaborately and that in some cases less cumbersome Methods could order to improve the usefulness of the Red Book NRG was assigned to prepare acomplete revision and update with special emphasis on user friendliness. In this secondedition NRG has included many improvements which resulted from the experience itgained in using the Red Book in risk revision of the Red Book was supervised by a committee in which participated:Dr.

5 Blokker, chairmanDCMR Environmental Protection AgencyRijnmondMr. ir. K. Posthuma, secretaryMinistry of Social Affairs and EmploymentDr. AleRIVM National Institute of Public Healthand the EnvironmentDrs. R. DauweDOW Benelux MollProvince of LimburgIng. MuyselaarMinistry of Housing, Spatial Planning andthe EnvironmentIng. PetersMinistry of Transport, Public Works andWater ManagementDrs. Ing. van der StaakMinistry of Social Affairs and EmploymentDr. Uijt de HaagRVM National Institute of Public Healthand the EnvironmentIr M. Vis van HeemstAKZO Engineering van ZwolMinistry of Transport, Public Works andWatermanagement, Traffic Research CentreWith the issue of the second edition of the Red Book the Committee for the Preventionof Disasters by Hazardous Materials expects to promote the general use of standardisedcalculation Methods in risk Hague, July 4, 1997 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE PREVENTION OFDISASTERS BY HAZARDOUS MATERIALS,Drs.

6 Middelplaats, to use this of Identification of Failure Scenario Tree Tree Sequence Development and Failure Availability and Maintainability and of theory and Venn of for combining Exclusive versus dependent operations with occurrence of events (Multiplication rule for probabilities ) of at least one of the two events (Addition rule for probabilities ) structure of configuration of Important Concepts in of failure , sample, non-randomness, Probability , median and mode of a of a normal and loguniform Concepts in of failure of time dependent reliability one (safety valve spurious opening) two (coolant pump fails to run)

7 Of component related related and relation between failure rate, failure density and , unavailability and probability of failure on to number of relation between failure rate, failure occurrence rate and failure of constant failure rate tested stand-by repairable demand of failure of high-demanded , error and and secondary , degraded and incipient versus systematic data of generic bounds of generic data analysis on demand versus failure rate data data analysis of expert for use of opinion and interview updating update process of Bayesian of component of initiating event 6-A: Tables Chi-squared distribution and 6-B: Generic Component Failure Data OF IDENTIFICATION OF FAILURE SCENARIO of Qualitative Evaluation review7.

8 Hazard and Operability Modes and Effects of Quantitative Evaluation Tree Tree Carlo of the Hazard and Operability Analysis 1 1 basic of a Hazop procedure for a of the Criticality of a of the Failure Modes & Effects Analysis of of an for performing an of the of 7-A: Some other analyses TREE tree tree for fault tree tree construction of minimal of the minimal cut-sets failure, repair, test and maintenance of minimal , sensitivity and uncertainty for fault tree guidelines for fault tree guidelines for fault tree of fault tree of a system in a continuous mode of of high-integrity pressure protection system (HIPPS) loss of containment due to 8-A: Fault tree of example 8-B: Fault tree of example 8-C.

9 Fault tree of example OF MINIMAL CUT formulas for cut set occurrence rate of a minimal cut expected number of failures of a minimal cut unavailability of a minimal cut unavailability of a minimal cut down time of a minimal cut quantification of system of the unavailability of first-order cut of stand-by stand-by repairable line repairable of failure per demand of the unavailability of higher-order cut components in of the failure occurrence rate andthe expected number of failures of a cut order minimal cut order minimal cut 9-A: Tables quantification TREE tree analysis of an event of the heading tree tree development transition or Markov repairable one unit out of two system - two repair out of two system - one repair probability of failure of a one out of two by of high integrity pressure protection SEQUENCE DEVELOPMENT AND of initiating Tree line and support of of accident event tree large fault tree event tree small fault tree and quantification of accident sequence Cut-off Deletion of success Deletion of mutually exclusive

10 Inclusion of non-recovery of accident sequence operating identification and safeguarding functions event and event tree of safety sequence and top logic fault of accident sequence Quantication 12-A: Component 12-B: Component 12-C: Cut-sets list sequence FAILURE events and their of dependent against dependent to perform a common cause failure 1: System logic model - System - Problem - Logic model 2: Identification of common cause component - Qualitative - Quantitative 3: Common cause modelling and Data - Definition of common cause - Selection of probability models for common cause basic - Data classification and - Parameter 4: System quantification and interpretation of - - Results evaluation and sensitivity and uncertainty - 1: System logic model 2: Identification of common cause component 3: Common cause modelling and Data 4: System quantification and interpretation of 13-A: 13-B: Formulas alpha 13-C.