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Solutions tosome exercises from Bayesian Data Analysis ...
8.5 13.86 = 0.730 Pr(favorite wins by at least 8|point spread=8) = Φ 0.5 13.86 = 0.514 Pr(favorite wins by at least 8|point spread=8&favorite wins) = 0.514 0.730 = 0.70. Note: the values of 0.5 and 8.5 in the above calculations are corrections for the discreteness of scores (the score differential must be an integer).
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