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1 USDA s monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and De-mand Estimates will be released tomorrow at 11:00 Central. The table at right shows the results of Reuters pre-report survey of analysts, the goal of which is to get a feel for what the market might be expecting in the numbers. Any significant deviations from these figures would likely cause futures mar-kets to move sharply in post-report trading. The analysts responses reflect the generally negative sentiment for yields that has been spreading in the market over the past couple of weeks. Allendale, INTL FC Stone and Planalytics have all announced reductions of their yield forecast in the 1 to 2 percent ranges.

2 Descartes Labs, a firm that uses infrared satellite maps, says that its data indicates corn production will be lower than USDA s August estimates. Informa Economics, however, in-creased its production forecast by percent last week. This year may be the ultimate balancing act of crop fore-casting with bad conditions in the east offsetting good conditions in the west. Every discussion we have seen regarding the lower yields has focused on Indiana, Illinois and Missouri where excess rainfall has caused significant troubles. Interestingly though, analysts do not, on average, expect the harvested acres for soybeans to change much from USDA s August estimate.

3 We thought that might be the ultimate too much rain adjustment given what we have heard regarding un-planted or abandoned acres in Missouri. We still are not sure that enough attention has been given to growing conditions in the west, however. Our travels through Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota indicate VERY good crops. There has been some apparent early shutdown of corn plants due to disease or nitrogen loss but this is still a big crop in the west on top of a good amount of 2014 crop that is still in the bins. Cash bids in South Dakota were under $ per bushel last week and likely to get lower as harvest gets started.

4 Basis levels could get large in the west while being very tight in the east. Russia and the EU have agreed to try to settle several trade disputes, including the one over pork, outside the WTO dispute settlement process. That news comes from the Meat Export Federation, citing a report from Kommersant, a Russian busi-ness news outlet. This spat, which began in January 2014 when a small number of Lithuanian wild boars were found to have African Swine Fever and escalated in August 2014 when Russia embargoed products from countries that had initiated sanctions over its Crimea-Ukraine incursion, has been a major factor in challenges for pork exports in late 2014 and year-to-date in 2015.

5 It put an estimate 40,000 metric tons of EU pork on the world market at the same time that the Euro was losing significant value to the dollar, giving the now-available product a price advantage in many traditional mar-kets. Some EU states wish to negotiate individually with Russia to resume exports of pork fat and offal two product classes that were not covered by the embargos. Other states have opposed that ap-proach but it looks as though the talks will go forward. USMEF reports that EU hog prices may have bottomed for the time being though there may be additional downward seasonal pressure this fall. EU prices average Euros/kg in the last week of August, 13 percent lower than last year and 16 percent lower than the 5-year average.

6 Those prices are equivalent to price of $ per cwt. (hundred pounds) carcass weight. Vol. 13, No. 176/ September 10, 2015 Sponsored by The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer & Len Steiner, Inc., Adel, IA and Merrimack, NH. To subscribe, support or unsubscribe visit Copyright 2015 Steve Meyer and Len Steiner, Inc. All rights reserved. The Daily Livestock Report is not owned, controlled, endorsed or sold by CME Group Inc. or its affiliates and CME Group Inc. and its affiliates disclaim any and all responsibility for the infor ma on contained herein. CME Group , CME and the Globe logo are trademarks of Chicago Mercan le Exchange, Inc. Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for informa on purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implica on or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicita on to buy or trade any commodi es or securi es whatsoever.

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